The Championship – 18th January

@CherryAnalysts Won’t you kick yourself if you pass them and they go on to win? If its value, its value, the rest you cant control

I received the above tweet last week whilst discussing football matters and I think it typifies exactly what football betting is about. I’m of the belief that if you find value you’ll make a profit long term. The last two weeks haven’t gone well but I don’t regret the selections. From a long term point of view the main bank has still increased by 93.08% which is way above my aim of beating the banks.

We have had some success with the last three tips posted on twitter coming in, Man Utd at 2.06 to beat Liverpool, Paphos at 1.95 13:30 Lingfield Wednesday and Sharapova to beat Williams 2-0 at 1.7x on Friday.

[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Crystal Palace v Bolton Wanderers” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

You’ve probably all got sick of me going on about Palace by now, yes I’ve backed them a lot this season and taken them on once, but the fact is they are my most profitable team. I’ve been involved in 14 of their matches and 9 have resulted in a profit. If you regularly read my work you will know that I go on about Palace’s home form a lot. It’s now 8 defeats in 51 league games at Selhurst Park. Although they sit 19th in the full 6 game form table, they are 2nd in the 6 game home form table. They would be top of this table if it wasn’t for an 89th minute Blackpool equaliser and Huddersfield equalising through a comedy deflection.

I will admit that Palace’s form in general isn’t at the levels that they were showing earlier in the season. They seem to have lost a bit of their fitness and mental strength, this is showing in the number of late goals conceded coupled with them not being as clinical in front of goal.

However there are two sides in this match. Palace may not be in great overall form but Bolton aren’t pulling up any trees. In the last 6 games they’ve only picked up 1 more point than Palace. Overall they are 12 places and 13 points behind.

In my write up on their last home game against Wolves I wrote:

Palace’s only home defeat this season came on the opening weekend when they conceded 2 goals in the last 2 minutes against Watford. Since then they have won 7 and drawn 4 which in my book means they should be odds-on for most matches at Selhurst Park.

Palace won this match 3-1 and I still stand by this statement. Even taking into account the extra time against Stoke on Wednesday, 30 minutes more than Bolton played at Sunderland, I still have Palace at around the 2.10 mark at max. The odds on offer suggest that these sides are of equal ability, everything we’ve seen this season suggests they’re not. Bolton aren’t in the form that suggests they will finish with 6 points of Palace. So again Palace at home is the value call.

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Back Crystal Palace at 2.2x – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Millwall v Burnley” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Burnley have been a side that have cost me money this season, however I stand by all on the bets I’ve placed on their games. They won at Sheffield Wednesday, with a 25 yarder and a penalty,Wednesday are now top of the form table. They beat Palace with a 20 yarder into the top corener after being outplayed for 70 minutes. Without Charlie Austin they still don’t look like a side who can score, but frustratingly for me they are getting the rub of the green.

This weekend they travel to Millwall who are above them in the league. Burnley do sit 4th in the form table and this is what is keeping the Millwall price high. Millwalls home form is solid with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 6. I have these sides on an equal rating so would therefore have Millwall priced at 2.25.

When you add in the doubts arount Charlie Austin and my belief that Burnley have had a bit of luck on their side recently I have to go for a home win here. I belive that the signing of Nathan Tyson is a very good one for Millwall and he should go some way to replacing the goals they lost through Chris Woods move.

Again I think that 1 goal will be enough to win this game and if millwall score the 1st goal their home form should be enough for them to see this out.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”left” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Millwall at 2.30 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Derby County v Nottingham Forest” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This was the game at the top of my list when I starting looking at this weeks fixtures. Any of you who have followed me this season will know that I’m a fan of Derby’s home form and my belief that Forest are over-rated.

I have these two sides at equal ability on what they have shown so far this season. I think that this is highlighted by the fact that Derby would leapfrog Forest with a win on Saturday. Forest are 19th in the six game away from table with 1 win in the last 6, compare that the Derby sitting 3rd in the Home form table and you have a stat that points to a home win.

This is a derby game but I’ve said many times before that I enjoy betting on this type of games due to the belief that “the players will be up for it” “it’s a derby anything could happen”. It’s points like these that mean there is often value in these matchups. People seem to totally ignore the basics of football by throwing the form book out the window. The quality of the two teams involved doesn’t change just because they are playing a side 15 miles down the road.

I’m concertrating on the basics, I belive that Derby’s home form is superior enough to Forests away form. On current form there isn’t much between these sides and on the season so far I can’t see much difference, therefore I would have Derby priced at around 2.25.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”left” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Derby County at 2.4x – General
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Watford v Huddersfield” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Huddersfield are 23rd in the 6 game form table and haven’t won in their last 11 league games. They travel to a Watford side who are 7th in the form table and 6th in the league. Watford have won 3 of their last 4 league games. The game that they didn’t win was a crazy 4-3 defeat to Charlton where they took the lead twice, with players rested, and managed to lose by conceeding sloppy goals.

I cannot see them making the same mistakes here. They’ve had impressive victories on the road at Brighton and Boro recently and if they convert the form on their travels to what they do at Vicarage Road they will finish in the play-off with ease.

Watfords squad is becoming settled and with Vydra and Deeney they should always get goals. Whatever way I look at this I have Watford down at 1.80 max. The reason I have them at that price is due to long-term value. I think that if this game was played in a months time Watford would be at the 1.7x mark due to their home form picking up and the continuation of Huddersfield poor form.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”left” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Watford at 1.90 – BetVictor
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”#ToiletRollAcca” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Leicester
Derby
Birmingham v Brighton DRAW
Petrborough
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Ipswich
Watford
Sheff Wed v Wolves DRAW
Millwall
Blackburn v Charlton DRAW
Cardiff

This acca pays 50,000/1 with BetVictor

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