The Championship – 1st January 2013

We had a good day on Saturday with 3 from 4 singles coming in and increasing the main bank to +128.75%, which means December ended in profit and we are way ahead of the target to beat the banks. That was a good way to end the year and I feel the 1st half of the season has gone well.

We are now going into 2013 and my intention is grow continue to grow the bank but also improve the quality of my work as I’ve been too fearful of placing certain bets and ‘argued’ with myself over 0.02 difference in a price.

I am also hoping to a some new features to the site so that we have a broader range of activities going on, but for now we have a full set of  New Years Day fixtures to get through.

[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Watford v Charlton Athletic” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The current 6 game form table sees Charlton bottom with 0 win, 3 draws and 3 defeats. Watford are sitting in 3rd place with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their one defeat came against Hull, who sit top of the form table. Watford are also 10 points and 12 places above Charlton in the league, with a game in hand.

Charlton do have a decent away record but are currently on a downward trajectory, whilst Watfords home form isn’t spectacular with the 4 defeats they are defiantly a team on the up. They are starting to score goals with Troy Deeney and Matej Vydra really starting to look like a menacing partnership. Charlton aren’t a big scoring side especially when they have only scored 13 goals in their 12 away games. To Charlton’s credit they have only conceeded 13 in those matches, however they haven’t faced a current top six side away from The Valley so far this season. I fully expect Watford to score at least 1 goal and have them down in my book to get a minimum of 2, I cannot see Charlton scoring 1 let alone 2 so this game has to go down as a home win.

If this game was played in 2 weeks time I would expect Watford to be around the 1.80 mark. They are currently being given a 51.28% chance of winning this match. I would personally give them a chance of at least 55% which would price them around 1.80.

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Back Watford at 1.95 -William Hill
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Crystal Palace v Wolves” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I accept that Crystal Palace are on a bad run of form however Wolves form isn’t great either. Wolves have won 3 and lost 3 of their last six but those 3 win are their only wins in their last 15 games. Although Palace haven’t been winning they have still only lost 2 of their last 22 games. They also sit 13 places and 13 places above Wolves in the league table. It is also worth remembering that Palace have an excellent home record, they have only lost 8 of their last 50 home league games.

After the Huddersfield game I said to some friends of mine that it’s not worth backing Palace at home unless they were around the even money mark as the bookies were cottoning on to them. It is worth remembering that although Palace haven’t won in their last 5 games they have taken the lead in all of them and the only defeat was away to league leaders Cardiff.

If Palace had held on for another minute at Forest on Saturday and taken the 3 points they would have been priced at 1.8x for this game. I give Palace a percentage chance of around 55% (1.80) based on previous form and where these two clubs currently are. Palace’s only home defeat this season came on the opening weekend when they conceded 2 goals in the last 2 minutes against Watford. Since then they have won 7 and drawn 4 which in my book means they should be odds-on for most matches at Selhurst Park.

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Back Crystal Palace at 2.02 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Sheffield Wednesday v Burnley” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I backed Burnley to get a result on Saturday against Leicester, by laying Leicester at 2.38. However once Charlie Austin went off injured after 8 minutes it was clear that 1 goal from Leicester would probably be enough to win the game.

Their top scorers list this season shows the depth of the problem they’ll have without Charlie Austin.

They now come up against a seemingly rejuvenated Sheffield Wednesday side who although languish 21st in the league table are 6th in the six game form table. They are currently unbeaten in 4 (3wins, 1 draw) and haven’t conceded in that time.

It would seem then this is a good time for them to be playing a Burnley side who’s top scorer is a doubt for the game due to injury.

Burnley have 1 win in their last 7 and have only kept 1 clean sheet in that time (against a Derby side who struggle away).

I feel that with the current for of these two sides and with Charlie Austin out their is defiantly not too much between these sides and would have Sheffield Wednesday at the 2.30 mark. I feel it is worth taking a chance on Sheffield Wednesday to continue their run and back them here.

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Back Sheffield Wednesday at 2.50 – Boylesports
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Anytime Goalscorer Treble” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Troy Deeney (Watford v Charlton)
As stated earlier Watford are starting to score goals and it Deeney and Vydra who are scoring them. I’ve gone for Deeney in this as he is usually the penalty taker.

Dwight Gayle (Peterborough v Barnsley)
Peterborough are usually always good for goals and although not as prolific as they were in League One they have Dwight Gayle. He has played 8 games for Peterborough and scored 7 goals so at 2.40 offers value against bottom of the table Barnsley who have conceded an average of 1.83 goals per game on the road this season.

Billy Sharp (Blackburn v Nottingham Forest)
I was impressed by Nottingham Forest on Saturday they continued to play decent football even after the managerial changes. Billy Sharp is their top scorer this season and he is proven at this level, I feel he can score against a Blackburn side who I just don’t rate at the moment.

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The treble pays just under 16/1 with Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”#ToiletRollAcca” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

It would be nice if we could start the new year with this one coming in pays a healthy 116,000/1 with BetVictor.

championship 1st january accumulator

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