The Championship – 29th January

There’s no hiding the fact that this has been a terrible month in The Championship for me. The only consolation is that I’m still in profit, +22.04% meaning I’m still beating the banks, and I’ve been playing only with profits since the 3rd week of the season.

The graph on the left shows the progress through the season so far. The  yellow mark shows where I was at the end of December. After a down-trend like that, things can only get better.

Thankfully anyone who has followed me on twitter recently will have backed some excellent winners. I managed to follow on from last weekends blog with the below bets coming in at The Australian Open Tennis.

  • Azarenka to bt Li at 1.83
  • Lay 3 sets Murray v Djokovic at 2.98
  • A trading strategy on Murray v Djokovic which resulted in all profits made going on Djokovic at 1.18 in the 4th set

[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Bristol City v Watford” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Both of these sides are on an upwards trajectory. Bristol City are starting to find some defensive resolve and have picked up 7 points from their last 6 games. However they still have the worst defence in the league with 56 conceded.
Watford’s promotion push is well and truly under-way now thanks have the best strike partnership in the league. Deeney and Vydra have scored 30 goals between them. Watford are also the leagues top scorers with 56 goals.
Looking at this from a value point of view I have Watford winning this more than 50% of the time. A good reason to back that up is that Leicester went to Ashton Gate, were priced at 1.73 and won 4-0. At this time Watford are in better form than Leicester so they should be priced around that mark too.
[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”left” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Watford at 2.10 – General
[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=” Barnsley vs Millwall” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
I fancy Barnsley to beat Millwall on Tuesday night, but the prices look about right. Having taken a quick look ahead at the weekends fixtures there may be an opportunity of an easy trade. Blackpool are currently priced in the 1.66 to 1.72 region on Betfair. My thinking on this trade is that if Barnsley lose to Millwall the maximum downside is Blackpool price will stay around the same mark. The upside is that if Barnsley beat Millwall I expect Blackpool to drift to the 1.85 mark, meaning that you’re able to green up.
**This bet isn’t coming out of my main Championship bank and will not be inc. in P&L

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