The Championship – 23rd February

Tuesday night didn’t go to well but at the prices that happens sometimes. A goal for either Derby or Birmingham and we would of had solid profits. We’re still up for  this month, this season and most importantly we’re beating the interest rates of the banks.

[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Middlesbrough v Millwall” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Millwall have go from 150/1 to 20/1 for relegation since the end of January, this tell you something about their form. They currently sit bottom of the six game form table, two place below Boro. Chris Wood was a massive loss to them, but to me their main mistake was letting Darius Henderson go to Forest. He offered them creativity and goals. They simply haven’t replaced this.

Middlebrough aren’t in great form either but they haven’t became a bad side overnight, they still sit 6th in the league. They’ve had injury problems that have helped to contribute to them losing touch with the leading pack. Last weekend they were outplayed by Palace and couldn’t get the ball for long periods, in truth it was in Palace’s top 3 performances of the season. In midweek they travelled to Burnley and came away with a credible 0-0 draw. A repeat of that defencive display this weekend and they should be able to get the goals that will win this game.

Middlesbrough have an 11-1-4 home record this season, scoring 32 goals and conceding 19. The Riverside is still a tough place to go. Considering league position, current form and where I expect these teams to finish I would give Middlesbrough a minimum 50% chance of winning this game.

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Back Middlesbrough at 2.10 – BetVictor

[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Bristol City V Barnsley” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Barnsley are the form team in the league, the transformation in fortunes is phenomenal since David Flitcroft took over. Bristol City have also had an upturn in fortunes since Sean O’Driscoll took over. They have won all their home games. They have lost their three away matches but they came against Crystal Palace, Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers.

This game is one that neither side can afford to lose, if Bristol City lose it may be to big an ask for them to close a minimum six point gap and Barnsley lose then they will be right back in the thick of it, just days after getting some breathing space.

In truth there isn’t too much between these sides on paper and to me too much emphasis on Barnsley’s form is being reflected in the markets. I would personally have this priced at H-2.50 D-3.25 A-3.40. I can see this being a low scoring, tense and nervous game with the most likely outcome the draw. However I want Bristol City on my side as there current home form has to be respected.

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Lay Barnsley at 2.80 – Betfair

[symple_heading type=”h4″ title=”Wolves v Cardiff City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Cardiff were beaten when we backed them in midweek, but I see no reason they can’t bounce back here. Thomas Kuszczak was in fantastic form for Brighton, Cardiff had 19 shots, 12 on target but couldn’t find a way through.

Wolves on the other hand are one of the worst teams in the league, if Cardiff went to another side in the relegation zone they would be odds-on therefore the 2.46 has to be taken. To put it into better context the odds suggest they are less likely to win at Wolves than Leicester are at Blackpool.

I can see Cardiff keeping this tight at the back especially against a Wolves team that struggle to score goals at the moment. I cannot see Cardiff not getting at least one goal here. They have Campbell, Bellamy and Helguson in attack so I’m expecting a 0-1 or a 0-2.

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Back Cardiff City at 2.46 – Betfair

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