Premier League Ante-Post Betting

[symple_heading type=”h3″ title=”Top on 3rd September” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This3rd Sept is what I think the table will look like on the 3rd September, unless Chelsea v Aston Villa is re-arranged before then, in which case I will have them on nine points too. So taking this table into account I have come up with the below bet.

When Crystal Palace got promotion I said that two games they would win would be the home games against Spurs and Liverpool. Fortunately for Palace they play Spurs on the 1st game of season. I think that Palace will at least get a draw from this game, but for the purposes of this I will give them three points. I’ll go into more details of why I think they’ll win this nearer the time.

They then travel to fellow relegation candidates Stoke, where I have them down for a draw, which they managed at The Britannia in January, but a win is not beyond the realms of possibility. Sunderland then visit Selhurst Park, where Palace have only lost 9 of the last 61 league games. I have Sunderland down as relegation candidates so this looks to be another game that Palace can win.

I have priced Palace up at around about the 40.0 mark to win all three of these games. I’m not saying that they will get nine points but I think seven has a very good chance. Depending on what Man City (3.15) do, Palace (60.0) could find themselves up there and offer far more value in this market than Arsenal (5.0), Chelsea (6.0), who may only have two games, Southampton (25.0) and West Ham at (20.0).

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Back Crystal Palace to be Top on the 3rd September at 60.0 – 888Sport
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[symple_heading type=”h3″ title=”Top At Christmas” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

christmas

 

 

 

At Christmas I have  Arsenal and Man City (3.25) both on 40 points. In theory Chelsea (4.0) will also be on 40 points as I expect them to win their rearranged game against Aston Villa. Just in terms of the prices and my theoretical points tally I have to back Arsenal to be Top at Christmas.

 

 

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Arsenal To be Top at Christmas at 8.0 – Ladbrokes
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[symple_heading type=”h3″ title=”Final Table” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

 

final tableThe biggest shock for me when I was finished with my total points tally for me was that I had Crystal Palace staying up. I am a Palace fan and before this I fully expected us to go down. I was also surprised that I had Newcastle in 6th and Everton down in 16th. However from my Ante-post betting point of view I’m going to trust my judgement. From this table I have the below bets;

 

 

 

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Sunderland To Be Relegated at 6.50 – Stan James
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In the last four seasons the team that finished 17th the previous year has gone down the next. Sunderland finished 17th last season with two wins in the final 15 games, both due to the ‘new manager bounce’. In that time they were beaten 3-1 at QPR and 6-1 at Villa. I fancy them to continue that form and start slowly this season leaving themselves with too much to do after Christmas.

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Hull To Finish Bottom at 4.50 – Coral
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My main league is The Championship so I saw a lot of Hull last season and to me they are the poorest of the three promoted teams. When they came to Selhurst Park in March they were beaten 4-2 if you had told me that day they could get to the Premier League let alone survive in it I would of pissed myself laughing. Defensively they were good in The Championship for the 1st 75 minutes in games but after that they tired dramatically; they will be punished for this at a higher level. They were also so wasteful in front of goal, failing to score in 12 games averaging 1.33 goals per game. When you compare that to the rest of the top six it shows how hard their defence had to work.

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Liverpool To Finish in the Bottom Half at 21.0 – Bet Victor
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If you follow me on twitter you will know how I constantly go on about it not being the 80’s and that’s why I take Liverpool on a lot. They are priced up like they are a Champions League side, they haven’t been there in since 2009. This season they are priced up like they are guaranteed a top 6 finish, they finished 6th once in the last four seasons. This could be the season where their fans finally accept they are an average side along with the likes of Everton (unlikely I know, they’ve won it 5 times Blah Blah Blah YAWN). This price is simply too tempting to turn down as they could finish anywhere from 6th to 13th.

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Everton To Be Relegated at 34.0 – Ladbrokes
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I’m a big fan of Martinez so I was really surprised to see that I had Everton down in 16th place. I don’t particularly think they’ll go down but if my ratings are anywhere near correct 34.0 is a massive price. They could still lose some key players and it will take some time for the club to buy into Martinez’s beliefs.

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Arsenal +12 Handicap at 16 – Bet Victor
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  Predicted Handicap Total
Arsenal

84

12

96

Chelsea

94

0

94

Palace

41

51

92

Spurs

71

20

91

Man City

88

1

89

Swansea

48

40

88

Newcastle

54

33

87

Villa

47

40

87

Fulham

44

42

86

Cardiff

39

47

86

West Ham

43

42

85

Southampton

48

36

84

Sunderland

43

40

83

Stoke

37

44

81

Norwich

36

44

80

Man Utd

77

1

78

West Brom

41

36

77

Hull

25

49

74

Everton

39

27

66

Liverpool

43

20

63

I’ve added Bet Victors Handicap lines to my final rating to come up with the above table. 90 points is usually enough to win this market. I am expecting Arsenal to have a good season and if they break the 80 point mark they will go very close. The 16.0 in this market offers better value than the 12.0 on them winning the league. If they win the league their final handicap make-up will be at least 100 points so it’s unlikely they could be caught on that.

For my staking of these bets I have taken 10% of my Premier League Bank and used a Dutching Calculator to work out the individual stakes.

2 Comments

  1. Very strange having Newcastle in 6th considering the state of that club. They will finish in the bottom 5. Liverpool will be top 5. Look at their squad! It’s certainly better than Fulham!! And if Crystal Palace finish only 2 behind them Ill give you £50. They won’t get within 15 points. Cardiff will go down

  2. Hi Chris,

    I agree it’s strange that Newcastle came out in 6th, but I can’t see them being bottom 5. Europe really didn’t help them last season, so without that distraction they should improve.

    Looking at Liverpool’s squad I can’t see how they’ll be Top 5, their squad is worse than United, City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs. Assumming Suarez goes that leaves them with a keeper that was worse than last seasons one, an aging Gerrard and Sturridge (good player but selfish) leading the line. I don’t see how they have improved.

    It’s likely that Palace won’t get within two points but 15 points is easily acheviable if Liverpool can’t replace Suarez’s goals. In reality what top striker wants to sign for a club without Champions League football, let alone no european football.

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