Crystal Palace v Tottenham

The moment that Crystal Palace got promoted the two games that I had them down as winning were Spurs and Liverpool at home. Last season ended on very different note for these sides. Palace won promotion at Wembley whilst Spurs missed out on the Champions League after only winning five of their last ten games, blowing the lead they had over Arsenal.

Crystal Palace were favourites to be relegated from the Championship last season which proved to be wrong and again they have been written off as having no chance. Towards the end of last season they looked as though they learnt how to defend under pressure and being a Holloway team they’ll always pose a threat going forward.

The statistics for these two teams pose some interesting questions, especially regarding the team news;

Crystal Palace

  • Crystal Palace have only lost 13 of their last 69 home league games
  • Crystal Palace have kept 4 clean sheets in the last 5 games

Gareth Bale & Spurs 2012/13

  • Directly affected over 30% of the games he played in
  • He scored almost 32% of Spurs goals last season
  • When his 9 assists are added to his 21 goals he was involved in over 45% of Spurs goals
  • Spurs won 4 of their 10 games without Bale last season (all comps.)

Spurs away at odds on

  • Of the last 14 games they’ve played away from home at odd-on they’ve won 6, drawn 4 and lost 4
  • Last time they played away from home without Gareth Bale at odds on (1.80) they lost 3-1 at Blackpool

A lot is being made about the loss of Glenn Murray and Wilfred Zaha for Crystal Palace. Glenn Murray is a obviously a big loss, he was responsible for 41% of gaols, but with Chamakh and Dwight Gayle I feel they have signed two players who will score and create this season. The Zaha move is being overblown in my opinion, he’s a very good player and he has the potential to be one of the worlds best. However this belief that he scored or created basically every Palace goal is wrong. He scored six goals and provided ten assists in his 43 league games last season. That equates to 23% of goals scored, which when compared to the 45% that Bale contributed it’s easy to see who the bigger loss is. Well statistically anyway.

For anyone who enjoys historical stats here are a few that support the ‘Palace can get a result’ argument;

  • Palace have scored more Premier League goals (10) against Spurs than they have against any other side
  • Palace have only lost 1 of the last 6 against Spurs
  • Spurs have only won 2 of their last 12 opening games

Spurs should be favourites and comfortable ones at that, however with Palace’s home form tied in with the whole Gareth Bale and Spurs situation I would price Spurs at 1.90. That price is giving Spurs a 52.5% chance of winning this, however the current odds give them a 56% chance.

[symple_box color=”red” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]Lay Tottenham at 1.79 – Betfair[/symple_box]

Cherry Analysts

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