Liverpool v Manchester United

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I received an email in midweek from a Liverpool fan who was very smug that a team who’ve ‘won it five times’ won at odds on away at Aston Villa and I’d lost money on it. I don’t think this particular person understands value and what I try to achieve. Liverpool have been odds-on for their three competitive games this season. Laying them for a £10 level liability each time would of given you a PROFIT of £43.32 (after commission applied at 5%).

But wait a minute this is Liverpool Football Club their fans will say, think of the history!! So lets look at the history of this fixture;

  • Liverpool have won 3 of the last 10 against Manchester United at Anfield
  • The all time records between the two clubs is – Man Utd 74 wins, Liverpool 62 wins and 51 draws

All of this is insignificant though and all it goes to show is that some Liverpool supporters cannot accept the times we live in.

Nothing has changed at Old Trafford apart from the manager, they are still playing the same style of football and will be challenging for the title this year. Liverpool on the other had will not be challenging for the title despite hopes being raised after two 1-0 victories against Stoke and Aston Villa.

Liverpool backers will point to them having ‘world-class’ players like Steven Gerrard. In my opinion Steven Gerrards’ legs have gone, I can’t remember the last time I saw him make one of those runs into the box to get on the end of a pull back. However he’ll probably still be captaining the side when he’s 45. Playing 120 minutes against League One side Notts County in midweek would not have helped Liverpool’s cause, neither will the loss of Kolo Toure when you have Van Persie against you. I belive that backing Van Persie to score anytime at prices over 2.00 will prove profitable this season.

Two positives for Liverpool is that Daniel Sturridge is showing his potential and with him playing the way he is they will always get close to scoring, however I think that up against Vidic he may find his opportunities limited here. Another plus is Mignolet in goal. For me he has been the man of the match in their previous two games this season with some absolutely top draw saves. However this time he’s up against a genuine world class striker and not Jonathan Walters.

Last season Manchester United were 2.70 in this fixture and they won, they are priced up at 3.00 this time round and the only reason I can think of for the increase of 0.30 is due to David Moyes, a manager who was in charge of a side that finished above Liverpool in the last two seasons.

So the sum total of the above is that long term taking Liverpool on should be profitable.

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Back Manchester United at 3.00 – Coral
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Back Manchester United Draw no Bet at 2.05 – Coral
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Back Robin Van Persie Anytime Goalscorer at 2.40 – BetVictor
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Cherry Analysts

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