August Report & Lessons Learned

August wasn’t a great month for me. It’s one of those months where it can go either was as you don’t know much about the sides and a lot of my basis is a leap of faith based on where I believe teams will end the season.

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As I said in my About Me page, my staking is aggressive and that’s why I’m worried about some early season losses. My mathematical formulas have me having a maximum losing streak of between 9 and 10 over 1000 bets and by the same token I expect winning runs of between 9 and 10 over that time. I haven’t actually had a losing run of more than 5 football matches over the course of the last 7 years since I started keeping records.

Despite the poor start to the season I am still confident of landing a profit and have learnt that I need to take more risks. I’ve already had four bets I’ve liked that I haven’t placed but have won and only 1 that I haven’t place that would of cost me money. I need to start taking these risks because if I don’t then I won’t;

a) Increase turnover
b) Maximise profits

The reason that I say this is that my aim for the football season is to get my turnover up to £50,000 (across all markets) which should give me a profit of between £3,000 and £5,000. Turnover hasn’t been an issue for me in the last couple of years as I was working with a bigger bankroll. This season I’ve gone back to the beginning as towards the end of last season I was struggling to get all the money I wanted on matched at the optimum price. That may not sound like much of an issue but it is key to me as it’s not much use if you’ve managed to get £300 on your 2.68 shot that loses but you’ve backed a winner at 2.06 that you wanted £300 on but could only get £270 on at that price. In that example you’d make a loss of £30 (after commission) yet you would have made a profit, yes only about £2 but that’s better than a loss.

Lesson Learnt: When I fancy and the price dictates it’s ‘value’ something bet on it!

2058211049_gradeD_answer_4_xlargeWorking hard but results must improve 

 

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I’ve only include my horse racing P&L since I started this new site, there’s no point in putting up the profits I made previous to this as my year starts on the 1st day of Glorious Goodwood and runs to the day before the following years meeting.

The first seven horses I backed, since the new site started, were all in July and from and from that I found now winners. Every horse started shorter that I’d backed at, traded shorter in-running but all I had to show for it was four 2nd places. I was £330 down (£210 of that due to Dawn Approach) when the 1st of August came around.

August started with three winners on the spin and another one was added at the tail end of the month. That proved to be a profitable month and the deficit is now £159, or to look on the brightside August gave me a profit of £171 (47.5% return on turnover).

Going back to Dawn Approach his 2nd in the Sussex Stakes is responsible for basically all my racing losses. However I still believe that I was right to take that position on him. I normally only go racing when there is a horse I’ve been following running in a race that I really fancy it to win. Dawn Approach was a horse I’d been planning to back for about seven weeks so with that level of planning and belief I’m obviously going to get on it bigger that races I’ve looked at two days previous.

Despite a poor end to July leaving the site with a loss, I see no reason to change my tactics at the moment. My selections are beating SP and trading shorter in-running, therefore they are fitting my criteria for ‘value’. There is still a lot of racing to come in the next 11 months and if the National Hunt season is as good as it has been to me in the last 9 years I’ll be showing a profit come Glorious Goodwood 2014.

B- Good month apart from unfortunate results

Cherry Analysts

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