Premier League 22nd September

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Cardiff v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I think people got a little carried away with the Welsh side beating Manchester City. That was an excellent result but Cardiff were helped by some horrendous Joe Hart goal keeping. Tottenham have show this season that they will be a hard side to beat, they’ve only conceded one goals and that was away at Arsenal. Things are starting to click for Spurs and Christian Eriksen is the type of player they needed to add. When they travelled to Selhurst Park on the opening day they lacked that bit of craft that could unlock a defence and this was again in evidence when the face Swansea and Arsenal in the next two games. However against Norwich last time out they looked a lot more threatening. Norwich were unable to get the ball, and I expect Cardiff to get the same treatment today. I don’t expect Cardiff to score and I can’t see them keeping Spurs out for 90 minutes.

I was expecting to see odds of around 1.85 here, Spurs where 1.76 when they went to Palace and Man City where 1.66 when they went to Cardiff. So the 1.95 looks a good price to get involved in. Spurs won ten games on the road last season and actually only lost one in the 2nd half or 2012/13. The y look like a more balanced side compared to last year and once the players settle I think we’ll find that Gareth Bale not passing and shooting from 30 yards every week is less productive than eleven players who can knock the ball around and create space.

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Back Tottenham at 1.95 – William Hill
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Crystal Palace v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I think there has been a massive over-reaction to Swansea’s win at Valencia on Thursday night. Valencia aren’t the team of old, they are now a team who are in debt and have to balance the books every summer, for example this year they are +£24million in the transfer market. They currently sit 2nd bottom of La Liga. Swansea did out play them but I don’t know why people where surprised by that, Valencia also had play 80 minutes with ten men. If they were in the Premier League they would probably finish about 12th, which is where Fulham finished last season. If Swansea went and won 3-0 at Craven Cottage after playing against 10 men for 80 minutes I don’t think they would of shortened up from 2.45 to 2.25. I also believe that the original 2.45 was wrong.

Palace are strong at home and although they currently sit 2nd bottom with three points I feel they have made a good start;

  • Lost 1-0 to Tottenham from a penalty, a side who have only conceded 1 goal so far this season
  • Lost 2-1 at Stoke, Man City failed to win there and Stoke have made a good start to the season
  • Beat Sunderland 3-1, expected result which shows that they can compete at this level
  • Lost at 2-0 Man Utd, goal one coming after a penalty decision that was wrong and then playing the whole 2nd half with 10 men

I’m not sure how many point people would expect Swansea to get from those three games, but they certainly wouldn’t be winning all of them. Swansea have only won two league away games in 2013, so you can’t even say they have an excellent away record. As long as Palace stay solid and concentrate, I can see this game following a similar pattern to the others this season. Swansea will see a lot of the ball however they will spend a lot of time passing it side to side and shooting from range.  It’s then whether Palace can exploit that on the counter attack. Swansea have already shown that they can concede goals this season with seven going past them, which is one more than Palace have let in.

I actually think that Palace will win this game 1-0 or 2-0, however I want some draw cover on my bet so I’m going to play the Asian Handicap line at +0.25 (0, +0.5). This bet is basically half my stake on Palace with a 0 goal start with the other half on them with a +0.5 goal start.

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Back Crystal Palace +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.00 – Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester City v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I don’t see Manchester United winning this games! I think David Moyes will set his team out not to lose and United will regret that. Despite beating Bayer Leverkusen I still go back to the game last weekend against Crystal Palace where they struggled to score from open play and didn’t offer that much of a threat going forward. Other than when Van Persie hit the bar Palace didn’t really look like they were going to concede.

Man City haven’t been impressive either however they swapped Fernadinho and YaYa Toure around in midweek and it worked perfectly. I expect to see the same tactics today and Ya Ya Toure dominating the midfield battle against Fellaini. With Manchester United pushed back this will isolate Van Persie.

Manchester City have score in their last 52 Premier League home games and in a low scoring game I think one may be enough. If they can get the first goal then I don’t think David Moyes has the player at his disposal that can control the midfield and create the opportunities in this match for them to get back into it. United’s best chance  of a goal in that scenario would likely be a mistake from Joe Hart.

I have Manchester City finishing about 10 point clear of United at the end of the season and if that is the case then the odds on offer are too big. I would have City at about 2.15 for this match.

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Back Manchester City at 2.30 – William Hill
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