The Championship 1st October

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Derby v Ipswich” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The decision to sack Nigel Clough is a strange one, he had 33% win record over his time there which is poor but he took a team that was low on confidence after a spell under Paul Jewell (22% wins) and improved them season after season. They have a young side with some very talented improving players, Will Hughes is only 17 and looks a future England international. I’m not sure where this really leaves this side going forward, but they’ll need to get somebody in who is able to nurture young talent. In the meantime I couldn’t be putting my money on a side who have not won at home this season, despite some excellent away performances.

Ipswich are a good side and should be finishing in the top half this season. They’ve won three of their last four games and look like they are about to go on a big run. David McGoldrick is scoring goals and with some of the defensive mistakes Derby have been making recently I think they’ll struggle to keep him quiet. Ipswich are the team to side with here, however Derby do have some quality that’s why I’ve looked at the Draw No Bet market. I would have been happy to back Ipswich in this market at around 2.40 as I don’t think they’ll lose, there’s no reason to think that the sacking of Clough will have a positive impact in three days.

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Back Ipswich Draw No Bet at 2.60 – BetVictor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Blackburn v Watford” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Blackburn started the season poorly with one point from their first three games but since then they have picked up eleven points in their next six. Their only defeat in those games came at Leicester City, no shame in that. This run of form has taken them up to 12th in the league and 5th in the six game form table. Watford are currently 4th in the league table but one place below, on goal difference, Blackburn in the form table. Watford have won their last three games but two of those were with goals in the last ten minutes, both against sides who don’t have the attacking talent of Jordan Rhodes.

At the end of the season I don’t think they’ll be too much between these two sides, as long as Blackburn can keep Rhodes in January. They both have the quality to be around the top six and that’s why I think Blackburn are over-priced here. I would actually price this match with Blackburn at 2.70, Watford at 3.00 and the Draw at 3.40. At the prices though I want to get some draw cover on my side, there fore I’ve looked at the Asian Handicap markets. I’ve decided to take Blackburn -0.25 (0, -0.5) so if it does end a draw I only lose half my stake.

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Back Blackburn -0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.375 – Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Middlesbrough v Huddersfield” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Middlesbrough have only won four of their last thirty-six games and managed to turn a position of being 3rd after twenty-five games last season into a 16th place finish and they currently sit 18th this season with one win from their nine games. Hudderfield are going the other way, led by James Vaughan’s goals. He has scored seven goals in eight league matches this season and it would have been eight if he hadn’t of hit the bar with a late penalty on Friday night. Despite that missed penalty Hudderfield are 8th in the league and they’ll be happy with that start.

I don’t see why Middlesbrough are priced up as though they are going to finish above Huddersfield this year, they’ve shown nothing in the whole of 2013 that says Tony Mowbray is going to be able to turn results around. I was expecting to see them priced at 2.40+ for this game, so being able to lay them at 2.1x is a bargain. Those odds are giving them a 47% chance of winning this game yet they’ve only won 11% of their last thirty-six.

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Lay Middlesbrough at 2.18 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Blackpool v Bolton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’ve put my money down on the last three Blackpool games and lost each time. I backed them at Millwall, they took the lead and then lost. I backed Leicester to beat them and they equalised with a last minute penalty. Then to top it off I backed Huddersfield to beat them and James Vaughan missed a penalty with six minutes left. However I want to be with them against 23rd placed Bolton.

Dougie Freedman got the Bolton job on the back of an eight game run at Crystal Palace. Previous to that Place had been awful for the whole of 2012. Freedman’s tactics of get men behind the ball, that he says he learnt by studying the game in Italy are out dated. These tactics bore fans and often leave his teams with no plan B. Bolton’s last three league wins all came in April and masked a lot of the issue they had. When looking at those games in a bit more detail they came against Huddersfield (stayed up last day), Wolves (Relegated), Bristol City (Relegated) and Middlesbrough (Form explained above). ¬†Whilst I don’t think Blackpool will maintain their play-off push they are in decent form and at the moment they are getting results. There is no reason they should be priced at 2.30 at this time, when Brighton are priced at 1.75 v Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds are 2.05 v Bournemouth and Middlesbrough 2.10 v Huddersfield.

The simple fact is Blackpool have the same number of points as Watford, Reading and Forest, none of those sides would be priced at 2.30 to win this match.

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Back Blackpool at 2.30 – Bet Victor
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