US Open

I’m a big fan of tennis betting and have had a successful time when when working on the 2nd week of slams. My Wimbledon results this year ended with 17 markets played – 12 wins, 4 losses and 1 break even. One of the main reasons that I like tennis betting is that in-play action really allows you to increase your turnover. My favourite trade within men’s tennis is the 15-40 trade. If it’s that score the server usually holds over 50% of the time, however from a trading point of view you will lose about 3% if they don’t hold but gain in the region of 7% if they do. Effectively you’re getting 2/1 on an Even money shot. Another bet that I like is laying the server in women’s tennis just after they’ve broken. I watch a lot of WTA tournaments without actually betting on them and you can see that serving is a disadvantage to many.

My in play action for this week will center on the above and as with Wimbledon I will attempt to post all my bets and positions on twitter.

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At the moment Andy Murray is the best player in the world. I said it before Wimbledon and was rewarded when he beat Djokovic in the final. He comes to the US Open as defending champion on his favourite surface at his favourite tournament. He’s now into the 2nd week and is still being underrated. However he’s on course to play Berdych, who he beat in the semi final last year, If Murray does reach the semi-final to face Djokovic then in my book he would have to be favourite at about the 1.80 mark. That should leave Nadal or Federer in the Final. Murray will have no fear in beating Federer on a hard court outdoors. Nadal is a different proposition but the fact that this isn’t clay gives Murray the advantage for me. Rafa has played a lot of tennis this year and if they went to five sets I would expect Murray to beat him. Of all of Nadals’ 12 Grand Slam victories he’s only won two on a hard court (2009 Aus Open and 2010 US Open).

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Back Andy Murray at 5.70 – betfair

The womens side of the draw is as usual dominated by Serena Williams. However I can’t be backing her at 1.64. To beat Serena you need to be able to go with her from the base line, take your chances on her 2nd server, get your 1st serve in and all importantly get some luck.

Victoria Azarenka has won both of their hard court meetings this season. She’s in decent form at the moment and already has a Grand Slam win this year, when she defended her Australian Open crown. Sh reached the final here last year only to be beaten by Serena.

Serena has a convincing head to head record, as she does against basically all players but at the prices I would rather be with the current world number two than a WTA player at odds-on.

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Back Victoria Azarenka at 4.10 – Betfair

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Day Fourteen” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Both mens semi-finals landed me with a profit yesterday and that has now taken me back into the green for the week, after Andy Murray cost me. Unlike at Wimbledon I haven’t bet on as many matches as I would of liked. I’ve only played nine matches and made a profit in five of them and now have a Return on Investment of 8.49%.

It’s the Women’s final tonight and I still have my Outright bet on Victoria Azarenka. Even if she is beaten by Serena Williams I will still be showing a profit and for that reason I am not getting involved in the pre-match odds. I will be looking for some in-play action but it conceivable that Serena could blast her way to victory and offer no opportunities.

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I took yesterday off after the disappointment of my Andy Murray bets going down and with my Outright Azarenka still going I thought I’d leave an uncompetitive day of tennis alone. The Azarenka match was classic WTA with break after break, so in hindsight it would have fitted my trading profile perfectly.

Today we have the two mens’ semi-finals and I can’t see past Dojkovic and Nadal. Rafa hasn’t lost serve once this tournament and it’s difficult to see how Gasquet can trouble him. Nadal is stronger, quicker, fitter and has played a lot less tennis in the last two weeks. With that in mind I would make Nadal a 1.33 shot to win this in straight sets.

I think there has been an over-reaction to Wawrinka’s victory of Murray. Wawrinka was excellent on Thursday night but after he got the break in to win the first set Murray didn’t look to interested. The biggest surprise for me was that Murray didn’t even setup a break point opportunity. It’s difficult to see Dojkovic not getting opportunities to break the Wawrinka serve. I do however think we’ll see a close first set and it Dojkovic trades at 1.50 I’ll be backing him at that point.

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Back Nadal 3-0 at 1.53 – Betfair

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Back Djokovic in-play at 1.50 – Betfair

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Day Ten was another profit making day even though Vinci was completely outplayed by Flavia Pennetta. With the first bet losing it was down to my trade on Richard Gasquet and it went exactly as expected. I backed Gasquet at 3.25 and he duly went on to win the first two sets at this point I green up by laying Gasquet at 1.25.That gave me a profit of +150% on either outcome. The inevitable then happened, the Gasman lost then next two sets as expected. However in something not seen in a Gasquet match, he put that behind him and won the final set 6-3 to reach his maiden Grand Slam semi-final.

Victoria Azarenka won her quarter-final in straight sets and will now face Pennetta in the semis. With Pennetta already costing me twice this week I’m hoping its third time luck and Vika makes the final to keep the outright bet going.

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are both in action today but with my outright bet on Andy Murray still going I’m not getting involved in either of those matches. I am instead increasing my position on Andy Murray in the outright market. He’s now out to 6.60 due to the form that Rafa Nadal is in. However Andy is a different player these days and is able to go five sets with the best of them. I have added confidence in this bet as failed professional tennis player/coach Andrew Castle says that he fancies Nadal for the tournament.

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Back Andy Murray at 6.60 Outright Winner – Betfair

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Day Ten” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Day Nine was more like what I am accustomed to. Andy Murray and Victoria Azarenka both won after losing the 1st set keeping both Outright bets alive. Li didn’t go 4-0 up in the 1st set but was avilable to lay at 1.10 after breaking at the beginning of the 2nd set. I took a strong view that she was a lay at that price. I took the decision to get out at 1.30 and did so when she ultimately ended up a break down. This trade made me over 140% profit. Tomas Berdych traded at 2.00 at the beginning of the 3rd set and I got on at that point, he traded as low as 1.25, I got out at 1.32 to give myself a profit of a little over 50%. Unfortunately Youzhny wasn’t able to get his win in four sets but at a 4.00 back and with two successful trades I’m happy to let that one go.

The match of the day is Gasquet v Ferrer and I’m siding with the Gasman. The Frenchman has undoubted talent but there have always been question marks over his mentality. David Ferrer has done well for me over the last couple of seasons but recently he seems to be losing a lot more sets. I expect Gasquet to make a fast start in this and wouldn’t be surprised if he can get into a position where he is serving for the 2nd set, that’s the point to green up.

Bar the 1st set against Safrova Roberta Vinci has be performing consistently well. Today she faces Flavia Pennetta who is yet to drop a set so far. The market suggests that they cannot be split but there were signs in Pennetta’s 2nd set against Halep that she was hanging on. The rain cam for here when Halep was serving at set point. This was then followed by a four and a half hour delay where she was able to refresh. If the market is correct and these two are of equal ability then a three set match is expected and if it goes three sets I’d have to back Vinci. However I think Vinci is the better player and would have her priced at around 1.62 from the off.

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Back Gasquet at 3.25 looking for a trade – Betfair

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Back Vinci at 1.91 – General

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Day Eight didn’t turn out as well as I hoped, but I only have myself to blame. Simona Halep was nowhere near beating the handicap line so that was one bet down the drain. However those who follow me on twitter would have seen that I got myself into a decent position on Halep during the 2nd set. However after greening up once, then moving that green to Halep at 5-5 I decided turn Pennetta red effectively giving me Halep at 2/1 (3.0) she then broke and the odds dropped to 1.4x. Now at this point I had the opportunity to recoup my handicap losses and still make a healthy profit on the match, no matter what the outcome. However for some reason I didn’t press the button Halep got broken and lost in a tie-break. Fingers burnt and lessons learnt.

I did have some good news though, with Federer and Halep both going out my Outright bets on Murray and Azarenka are in a stronger position.

I’m leaving the women’s games  alone today unless Li Na goes 4-0 up in the 1st set and trades at 1.10 for the match. At which point I’ll have a relativity cheap lay as she is always capable of throwing away a good lead.

On the men’s side I obviously fancy Murray and Djokovic but won’t be backing them at 1.0x. Of the other two games I fancy Berdych to over-come Wawrinka, however I think I’ll get a much higher price in-play and will be looking to get on Berdych at around the 1.90 mark. Lleyton Hewitt is rolling back the year at the  moment but he’s played a lot of tennis this week. I can see it catching up with him. He’s capable of taking a set but I expect Mikhail Youzhny to prevail.

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Back Tomas Berdych at 1.90 if available within 1st 2 sets

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Back Youzhny to beat Hewitt 3-1 at 4.00 – General

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Lay Li Na if she goes 4-0 up in the 1st set at sub 1.10 – Betfair

As usual I’ll be trying to get some in-play trades done and post them on twitter.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Day Eight” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Simona Halep is one of my favourite players on the WTA Tour and she is really startign to show some good form this year. She reached the final of the Italian Open back in May beating Kuznetsova, A Radwanska and Jankovic before losing to Serena Williams. In June she won her first WTA title in Nurnberger and then added a 2nd a week when beating Wimbledon Semi-Finalist Kirsten Flipkens in ‘s’Herogenbosch. In July she won the Budapest Grand Prix and only nine days ago she won her first hard court title when beating Petra Kvitova at New Haven.

Whilst Flavia Pannetta has won more singles titles (9) she is 10 years older. She’s had issues with her wrist and underwent surgery last year. She had to retire at in the qualifying round of 32 at New Haven a few weeks back. These two have met twice with Flavia Pennetta winning both encounters on the clay. However one of these was back in 2010 and Simona Halep is a diffent proposition now. The other defeat came in July this year when Halp retired in 3rd set of their Swedish Open encounter.

I feel this is going to be a completely different encounter on a hard court and expect Simona Halep to win comfortably.

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Back Simona Halep -4.5 games at 1.86 – 118Bet

In the mens matches today Tipsarevic v Ferrer (17:30) and Gasquet v Raonic (19:30) both look like they will be decent trading matches, so I’ll be concertrating on those thoughout the evening and updating twitter. #CAtennis #2ndWeekSlamLove

Cherry Analysts

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