X Factor – Post Bootcamp thoughts

This tweet was the basis of my last X Factor article, X Factor 1st Thoughts and I still maintain what I wrote there. The six girls that were highlighted in that article all made judges houses, as the online spoilers revealed. However I didn’t add into that article anything about what type of female they were looking for. My thoughts were that they wanted a female between the ages of 18 and 26. With the contestants who are 26 not getting into the girls category and instead the overs, they are often overlooked. Therefore I think it’s time to take a look at an overs category that has five girls at judges houses.

Sam Bailey

sam bailey
Currently trading at 8.50 she is the top over she can sing but I don’t think she can win this show. If this was The Voice on The BBC she’d be the perfect candidate but X factor is a different proposition. Lets take a look at the facts;

  • She’s hardly a looker, I can’t see where her core vote is going to come from. I don’t see Middle England Mums voting for a prison officer who they probably see as a lesbian.
  • So if she’s not going to get the ‘MEM’ vote, maybe she’ll get the Kerry Katona type council estate vote. Not likely as I can’t see large numbers of people who know/have know somebody in prison voting for a prison officer.
  • The lesbian vote – she’s not attractive enough to get that.
  • The teen vote – she’s too ‘old’ to get support from there, especially with the likes of Sam Callahan and Kingsland in the field.
  • Her only hope in mobilising some support is if she can get the ‘grey’ vote and in that case I can’t see large numbers of over 50s taking to her. My mum fits in to this category and her views on her are (quote) “err she’s revolting, if she’s in in her 30s I’m Mother Teresa, she looks 60 if she’s a day, boot you in the head as soon as look at you”

All of these factors have her out of the running for me, she’ll make the live shows on her voice but I can’t see her lasting more than four weeks.

Joseph Whelan

I’m not even going to bother with him as he’s going on tour in November. If he already has tour dates booked up then a) he’s not making the live shows and b) if he did he’d have to leave before November to fulfil his dates.

Andrea Magee

She’s more like able that Sam Bailey and a more ‘credible’ artist, being a music teacher. She’s also infinitely better looking yet she is trading at five times the price, 41.0 (40/1). If they are going down the female winner route then I think they’d prefer her in their final three overs. She may struggle to gain enough support from the voters but she has voice that could potentially tap into the grey vote and should also benefit from a large regional vote from Belfast.

Lorna Simpson

Lorna is the type of contestant I was looking for this year. A female act, 18 -26 and with a big strong voice that can own a arena. She showed this at Bootcamp this weekend where she was the best act of the lot. If she doesn’t make the live shows then I will be shocked. At 50/1 she offers much better value than Whelan and Bailey.

Zoe Devlin

Zoe works as a waitress/singer in a jazz bar I walk past everyday. I have been tempted to go in but never enough to actually walk through the door. That may be one of her problems, I think the producers will look at her and think that she won’t able to a wide enough ‘pop’ range of people. He other issue is the below tweet.

I don’t think this is the kind of thing producers want to see in a contestant and I think they’d rather cut her loose before the lives then have the aggravation that she could cause them. She was also back performing at the above Jazz bar on the 26th September, I can’t see her going back to her day job if she’d already made it to the live shows.

Shelley Smith

I don’t see the difference between Shelly and 2010 Big Brother winner Josie Gibson. They’re both on the larger side and from the West Country. She can hold a tune but I really can’t see her as anything more than a novelty act, someone with a funny voice who the public can have a laugh at. I really can’t see her selling out arenas and cracking America, which in theory is what the show wants. For that reason I don’t think that she’ll make the live shows.

I was trying to back Tamera before she performed on Saturday but couldn’t get any of the 7.50 on her, which left me regretting not taking my own previous advice.

If history is anything to go by then mixed-raced Tamera should go well in this show. The list of previous mixed raced contestants is a strong one;

  • Leona Lewis – 1st 2006
  • JLS – 2nd 2008
  • Danyl Johnson – 4th 2008
  • Rebecca Ferguson – 2nd 2010
  • Marcus Collins – 2nd 2011
  • Jahméne Douglas – 2nd 2012

From an estimated 1.2 million mix-raced people (in The UK) I would say that the above results exceed expectation.

I don’t know the exact reason for mixed raced people having a good record in the show, maybe they are just better performers. But I do think they can appeal to a broad spectrum of people. Obviously they can pick up votes from both black and white middle-aged people, many of who may have mixed raced children, the teen vote doesn’t really see colour and with regards to the ‘grey’ vote it’s likely that a decent proportion of them will have mixed-raced grandchildren or great-grandchildren, maybe they get reminded of this when they see mixed-raced people perform.

Looking ahead at Tamera I could see her having an Alexandra Burke moment on Finals night. Beyonce is one of the biggest stars of all time, Alexandra was 2nd in the public vote after the semi-finals, behind JLS. That is the only time since voting figures were released that somebody has been able to turn around a semi-final deficit.

With regards to who Tamera will sing with if she makes the final there is only one answer, ‘Friend of the Show’ Rihanna. Tamera is seen as the British version of Rihanna so it makes perfect sense on that front. Rihanna also sang a duet in the 2010 final with winner Matt Cardle. If Tamera gets to the final she’ll win this show. I want her in my book but I can’t at the current prices as we don’t know if any more bad press will come out or how she acts under pressure. At this time I would rather concentrate on some bigger priced acts that can trade shorter.

As for the boys I can’t be having my money on them, they’re mentored by joke judge Louis Walsh. As for the groups Kingsland won’t be allowed to win as One Direction are already filling that void. A group of three black girls just thrown together will just be seen as a poor version of Destiny’s Child or TLC (who, surprisingly, never had a UK Number 1). I just don’t see that combination really working with the Great British public. That leaves Gary with four acts that are basically the same, a little bit urban with some over the top choreography. I really don’t see ‘middle-England’ connecting with people wearing hats like this. thug life

From watching bootcamp it seems obvious they want a female winner but, that’s not going to be Sam Bailey she’s hardly even female. At the prices I’m adding Andrea and Lorna to my book that already contains Abi and Relley.

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Back Lorna Simpson at 51.00 – 888Sport

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Back Andrea Magee at 41.00 – 888Sport

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