X Factor – 1st Thoughts

On twitter I have been saying that I think a female act will win this years competition and from the first two weeks of auditions it’s apparent that the producers Plan A is ANY girl. The reasons that I thought a female act would be Plan A is because;

  • They already have One Direction, James Arthur and Ollie Murs making them money from the other categories, a new male act will either fail commercially or eat away at profits.
  • Their last two female winners (Leona Lewis & Alexandra Burke) careers  now appear to be over.
  • Plan A for the last two years has been a girl (Janet Devlin & Ella Henderson) and they’ve got it disastrously wrong both times, it’s my belief that they want to ‘rectify’ this.

With that in mind this is what I have taken out of the first two weeks;

  • The show has been front loaded with girls (both in the girls and overs category), history shows that these are the ‘preferred’ acts and getting them onto the TV screens earlier gives them more time to build a fanbase.
  • Tamera and Abi have both been heavily ‘pimped’ so far.
  • The only groups shown so far have been female, which highlights the ‘quality’ of the solo female acts.
  • The Boys category has been given to Louis, which is a massive handicap as he is actually clueless. In contrast to the the girls have been given to ‘alpha’ judge  Nicole. In the last series she had three of the final five acts and landed the one-two with Jamene and James.
  • All six girls that have made it through so far, have all been made to look ‘credible’ acts.
  • Five of the six overs who have made it are also female.

The above has convinced me that Plan A is for a female winner and at this time that’s where I’m going to concentrate my betting activity. I’ve take the view that Sharon isn’t a winning judge so the overs are going to struggle to compete with the younger girls. The six girls who make it through to Judges Houses are below, so it makes logical sense to look at them.

Tamera Foster

Tamera FosterShe was pimped in show one and is in the attractive, young, urban female mould that the producers would like. I assume they see/saw her as the British Rihanna. However since then stories have emerged in the press about how she is a violent drug taking bully. She looked to be what they were looking for, however would the producers want this kind of attention for the show so soon after they managed to rid themselves of Tulisa? I’m 50/50, they could take her to the lives, make her into a star and call it a ‘journey’ or it could end up like Frankie Cocozza, with her going on a drug fuelled bender and her demanding that a teenage white girl kisses her feet. The second scenario wouldn’t go down to well with the Daily Mail, the middle-classes or Northerners.

Melanie McCabe

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This is now Melanie’s fourth time on the show! On this occasion she has been given a lot of the airtime, so I think it’s unlikely they will let her get this far and give her as much exposure as they have if they are just going to crush her at Judges Houses. For that reason I expect her to make the lives, but the producers will be happy to lose her. If she makes the lives and doesn’t win then they would of finally managed to stop her coming back year after year.

 

Abi Alton

Abi AltonAbi is very much in the Janet Devlin/Ella Henderson mould. She was pimped in the week two auditions and is a really likeable girl. She’s the type that will grow on people and has that ‘credibility’. She plays instruments and writes songs, at the moment I have her as the most likely winner. My doubts around her though are she looks classic week 7 shock exit material. One major plus though is that she is from Teeside and in the last two years Teeside has produced the winner (James Arthur) and 3rd placed Ameila Lily. Regional support is always a positive and I see no reason why it should be different this year. If she did land in the bottom two I expect her to be saved against any male act or group.

Hannah Barrett

hannah-barrett-x-factor-2013

I grew up in the London Borough of Croydon and I don’t even want to support this girl. If she can’t connect with me I really can’t see how she’s going to connect with the housewives of Burnley, Bolton, Blackburn etc… She can sing, has a sob story and is a nice girl but I just can’t see how she will be saleable.

 

Jade Richards

jade-richards

This is Jade’s third time on the show and I already have Melanie down as going through to the lives, there is no way the producers are going to put two serial rejects through. I can see a scenario where it’s down to Jade and Melanie for the last place, they’re sitting on a bench with Nicole and she tells Jade that she hasn’t made it. That would be some good TV, with the relief and elation of Melanie compared to the despairing tears of Jade.

 

Relley C

Relley CI’m sure that Relley’s surname isn’t just the letter ‘C’. I may be looking into that too much but it seems that she could be going down the Misha B route. With four other teens in the girls category, I can see the producers going for an older girl. That would put her head to head with Jade. It’s unlikely that the final three girls would all be white as I’m sure that would create some Gamu style bad press. I think it’s fair to say that the producers will also want an ‘urban’ act on the show to try and cover all bases. If they decide to go with Relley they will kill three bird with one stone, they’ll have their urban act, their older girl and their girl with an ethnic background. I also think that if she doesn’t make it to the lives and they again use a wildcard, she’ll be added to strengthen the girls category.

That’s the six girls who make it though the first auditions and this is how I’m going to start spending my money…

Dutching them six girls in the winners market gives you odds of 1.89 which makes the 2.75 available for the girls to win it look like excellent value. However I think a better way to play this market is to look at who will make the lives and then bet on them accordingly. My three for the lives are Abi, Melanie and Relley, when dutching them three you get odds of 3.35. Taking it further I can’t see Melanie winning, there for I can dutch the remaining two and get odds of 6.91, which to my eyes is better than taking the girl category outright at 2.75. They’ll also be plenty of time to add more contestants into my outright book and with the girls all looking competitive against each other it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith to see them all at above 3.00 when the live shows start.

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Back Abi Alton X Factor winner at 8.00 for 86.44% of your stake – Paddy Power
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Back Relley C X Factor winner at 51.00 for 13.56% of your stake – Sky Bet
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