X Factor Live Show 2 – Can Shelly Bounce?

After predicting that Miss Dynamix would be the producers target at 10.0 (9/1) last weekend, it was pleasing to see them in the Strictly Come Dancing Crossover and sandwiched between the 3rd and 4th favourites to win the show. They traded as low as 2.00 (Evens) on Betfair to be eliminated, however it wasn’t to be as they managed to avoid the bottom two.

 
I backed them on Wednesday to go this week as they will go if they land in the bottom two, unless they are up against Shelly. However I’m not as confident that the producers will pull it off this time round. I can see them being sent on 6th before Tamera, so if Tamera can pull out a performance it should stop people remembering them. They are however singing Dreams by Gabrielle, which I think is a perfect song choice for them. I’d expect to see simple staging, however if they are put up on podiums with lots going on around them it may be too obvious that they are the ‘target’ which could get them some extras votes. The producers need to tread carefully around this band as they could put a run together if they are being seen as harshly treated.

I’m not convinced they’ll be in the bottom two but if they do end up there I’ll be backing them to go at anything above 1.40, providing they’re not up against Shelly.

Shelly is the interesting act this week, she’s singing Single Ladies which isn’t the kind of song that will suit her technically, but it suits her personality. You could imagine her singing it in the Dog & Duck Karaoke contest, where the 1st prize is a £25 bar tab. I think it’s safe to say that she is defiantly now being seen as the novelty act. It’s her birthday this week so she should be getting a sympathetic VT and you’d expect her to ‘bounce’ after finishing bottom of the flash vote last week.

The bounce is a key part of X Factor betting, since they released the voting figures in 2008 the 1st weeks saved act has gone on to get the below results the following week;

2008 – Girlband
Week 1 – 11th with 2.17% of the vote
Week 2 – 11th with 2.30% of the vote

2009 – Rachel Adedeji
Week 1 – 11th with 2.30 % of the vote
Week 2 – 10th with 3.70% of the vote
Although she landed in the bottom two twice in the 1st two weeks she went on to finish 1st in week 3 with 15.4% of the vote.

2010 – Katie Waissel
Week 1 – 15th with 1.55% of the vote
Week 2 – 8th with 4.30% of the vote

2011 – Frankie Cocozza
Week 1 – 11th with 5.20% of the vote
Week 2 – 7th with 6.00% of the vote

2012 – Rylan Clarke
Week 1 – 12th with 3.10% of the vote
Week 2 – 3rd with 10.2% of the vote

From the above it’s clear to see that everyone who has landed in the bottom two have managed to increase their percentage share of the vote the following week. However Shelly finished bottom of the flash vote, so we will never know what would have happened if she was able to get votes for the full time period. I’m not convinced she’ll get a big enough bounce this week but I’m going to wait until the show to see how ‘bad’ her performance actually is.

If Shelly does get a bounce and/or Miss Dynamix can avoid the bottom two with a solid and memorable performance then there will be a number of acts in the danger zone.

Sam Callahan cannot sing! However I don’t see him landing in the bottom two this week, he has the highest number of twitter followers and is seemingly adored by teenage girls. Add in a strong regional vote and he should be safe for another two or three weeks. He’s singing I Won’t Give Up by Jason Mraz, it doesn’t really suit him or his demographic and I think he’d be much better of doing a remixed version.

I thought Luke Friend‘s performance was out of tune and really poor. He doesn’t have that much of a stage presence despite the running around last week, he just looked awkward. I don’t see who his key demographic is, ie; who will vote for him.  Let Her Go is a song that could play to his strengths if he gets the guitar out and really strips it back. However he’s more likely to be jumping around like a kid with ADHD and that will see him in trouble.

Abi Alton is going down the same road as Janet and Ella of previous series, she is taking great, uplifting songs and ruining them. This week she takes Can’t Get You Out Of My Head b y Kylie. It’s almost certain she’ll slow this down and make it sound nasally. She doesn’t have a large fanbase and doesn’t really seem to be gaining many followers via social media. It’s a shame as she looked full of promise in her 1st auditions but since then she hasn’t produced anything memorable. I much better song for her would have been Love Song by Sara Bareilles. Her regional support or a good slot in the running order may keep her afloat for now, but another poor and uninspiring performance will leave her on the edge of a sing off appearance.

For the time being I’m giving Shelly the benefit of the doubt and believing in the bounce, I’m instead going to dutch the below bottom two combination bets, which pay out at a little over 9/4 (3.33 to be precise)

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Back Miss Dynamix/Luke Friend Bottom 2 Combo at 7.40 – Betfair
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Back Miss Dynamix/Abi Alton Bottom 2 Combo at 10.5 – Betfair
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Back Luke Friend/Abi Alton Bottom 2 Combo at 19.5 – Betfair
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