Premier League 23rd November

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Liverpool” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

If you follow me on twitter then you’ll know that I like to bang on about goal expectancy and how peoples in the Premier League is generally way out. If you ask people in the street what the best bets for almost any live TV game then Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score will come up frequently. The reason for this is because people want to be entertained, but the facts are that this season there has been 46 live Premier League games and 28 of those have ended with Under 2.5 Goals.

So looking at this game we have;

Everton

Played 11

  • Under 2.5 Goals has happened six times
  • Both Teams To Score NO has happened six times
  • Everton have kept three clean sheets in a row and have failed to score in their last two matches.

Liverpool

Played 11

  • Under 2.5 Goals has happened five times
  • Both Teams To Score No has happened six times

Neither of these sides are showing a trend to make me believe that Under 2.5 Goals should not be the favourite.

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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 1.98 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Hull v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Hull at odds-on??

I’m a Crystal Palace supporter and totally agree that this season has been awful, the first three games we played well and were ‘unlucky’ to only pick up three points, we then went on a run where everything that could go wrong did. At the end of that run Holloway resigned and since then we’ve played three games and picked up one point, however we have been competitive in those games.

Hull have taken to the Premier League well but my feeling is that they have now peaked, they were one of my three sides to go down and I backed them to finish bottom and if Palace can put any sort of a run together I still think they will. The reasons that I think they have peaked are as follows;

They have one win in five games and that was courtesy of an own goal against nine man Sunderland, they managed two shots on target in that whole match. In  fact their shooting all season has been poor all season, Hull are averaging 7.36 shots per game which is worse than Palace. The difference between these two side going forward is minimal, Hull have had some lucky breaks with own goals and penalties once you take them away they don’t look to threatening.

Defensively Hull have looked solid but last week Southampton opened them up at will, I don’t expect Palace to do the same but I don’t think that Palace will concede two in this match. Looking at the goals that Palace have conceded there are two glaringly obvious things to take form it;

a) Individual Errors ie; stupid penalties or not concentrating are responsible for around half the goals conceded.

b) Concentration: Of 21 goals against this season 10 have either been in the first 5 minutes of the game, the last 5 minutes of the 1st half or the 1st 5 minutes of the 2nd half.

It’s as if Palace go onto the pitch not realising that they’re in a game or at the 40 minute mark they stop thinking and start to think about what would be said at half-time. From the early goals against in the 2nd half of matches I don’t think whatever was being said at half-time was particularly helpful. Since Holloway left there has been a renewed ‘belief’ in the players and it can be argued they they could have got more from the games against Arsenal and Everton.

With my goals expectancy at basically zero in this game, Palace playing better and the fact that their actually isn’t too much between these side despite results, Hull have to be take on at odds-on. They should be 2.10 at the absolute minimum.

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Lay Hull at 1.88 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Newcastle v Norwich” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Back when I wrote my pre-season review I had Norwich getting relegated and Newcastle finishing in a Europa League spot. As things stand that could be exactly what’s going to happen. What Newcastle have in Loric Remy is a goalscorer, something which Norwich are missing, they’ve already failed to score five times this season. Last time they went away from home they were beaten 7-0 at Man City, it doesn’t matter what side you’re playing to concede seven goals is abysmal.

Newcastle come into this on the back of wins over Chelsea and Tottenham, keeping clean sheets in both matches. I thought that Newcastle would be nearer the 1.66 mark for this, I don’t see a way Norwich can keep them (Remy) out and I don’t see Norwich being able to outscore them, the best that they could hope  for is a score draw.

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Back Newcastle at 1.80 – Bet Victor
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