Premier League 1st January

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Crystal Palace v Norwich” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Both teams have only managed to score in fourteen (73%) of Palace’s matches this season, Norwich games have seen both teams fail to find the net on ten (52%) occasions. That sets the goal expectancy low already, once we add in both these sides Under 2.50 Goal stats the case for a low scoring game gets even stronger;

Crystal Palace   Total | Home | Away

Under 2.5 gls % 68% 67% 70%

Norwich               Total | Home | Away

Under 2.5 gls % 58% 60% 56%

This is a game that neither side can really afford to lose, I’m expecting a tight, low scoring game, just like when these sides met at Carrow Road in November. With the goal expectancy being so low and a strong ‘no’ trend on both teams to score the most likely results are;

  • 0-0 (9.50)
  • 1-0  (8.50)
  • 2-0  (12.0)
  • 0-1  (10.0)

The above scorelines can be dutched for combined odds of 2.46 at best odds.

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Back 0-0 at 9.50 – BetVictor (25.91% of stake)
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Back Crystal Palace 1-0 at 8.50 – Ladbrokes (28.96% of stake)
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Back Crystal Palace 2-0 at 12.0 – BetVictor (20.516% of stake)
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Back Norwich 2-0 at 10.0 – BetVictor (24.62% of stake)
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Aston Villa” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

We have three ‘relegation six pointers’ on this set of fixtures and Sunderland are the shortest priced home side of the three despite playing the side who are highest of the three away teams. Sunderland are starting to show some sort of form, however each of their three wins so far this season has been a ‘shock’, they cannot beat the teams around them. I’ve been saying for a while now that any team that goes to Sunderland in the 2nd half of the season and gets a point will finish above them and I still believe that. Sunderland have nine away games left but seven of them are against the top eight, however their home games are against bottom half clubs. They’ve failed to score in their previous two home games against bottom half clubs and this games looks very much like their match-up with Norwich less than two weeks ago.

Aston Villa aren’t in great form with four defeats and a draw in their last five games but at the prices I think they are the team to side with in this match. My goal expectancy is low and that makes the draw appealing, I would have this game priced up at H 2.30, D 3.20, A 4.00.

At 2.20, with a low goal expectancy and Aston Villa being better away from home, I’m taking Sunderland on in this.

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Lay Sunderland at 2.20 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Brom v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

West Brom are currently on a run of no wins in nine games, five draws and four defeats. Newcastle on the other hand are cemented in a top eight position and have a chance of Champions League football. Newcastle went to Crystal Palace just before Christmas and put in an excellent away performance in their 3-0 victory. In fact Newcastle have won three of their last four away games, keeping clean sheets in three of them. I don’t see how West Brom can keep Newcastle out in this one, they went o West Ham of all places and conceded three goals. Newcastle are about 60% better going forward than West Ham and my goal expectancy has them getting two goals in this. With my expectancy of Newcastle scoring twice I would have priced them at 2.75 to win this match.

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Back Newcastle at 3.00 – William Hill
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke v Everton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Everton are having an excellent season and currently find themselves in fourth place. However should they be 2.1x to win away at a side who have only lost one game at home all season? My answer to that question is no! Yes Everton have only lost one away game all season but 0-0 draws at Palace and Cardiff, along with a draw at Norwich show that they shouldn’t be this short. I think too much is being made of Stoke conceding eight goals in their last two games. Both them games were away from home and in the first game they were leading at Newcastle, before having two men sent off and losing 5-1. They’re now back to Britannia where they’ve already beaten Chelsea and drawn with Man City, I have a low goal expectancy in this game and therefore I cannot see why Everton are the price they are. They shouldn’t be any lower than 2.40 and have to be taken on.

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Lay Everton at 2.14 – Betfair
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