Premier League 26th December

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Aston Villa v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The low goal expectancy in this game gives the draw a massive chance, a bit like when Palace played West Ham, Hull and Cardiff. Aston Villa have only scored six goals at home all season, three of those against Man City. In fact they’ve failed to score in five of their eight home games. Crystal Palace aren’t any better on the road, they’ve only managed four goals and have lost seven from eight. They’ve also failed to score more than one goal in any of those games and haven’t scored in four of them. This game looks perfect for a 0-0 draw and for that reason I cannot see why Villa are odds-on for this.

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Lay Aston Villa at 1.98 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Newcastle v Stoke” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Newcastle are becoming a very professional and well organised side. They went to Selhurst Park on Saturday and just got the job done without making it hard for themselves, which is something that they weren’t doing last season. The distractions of European football are not there this season and due to that they are able to keep players fresher and that is showing in their league form. I had them finishing sixth in my pre-season review and they are showing that they are a top half side. I’m expecting them to put in another professional performance against a Stoke side, who although they are improving can’t be trusted away from home. They have one win on the road all season, that was against West Ham in August and they’ve lost all four of their away games against current top half sides. Newcastle are being underrated in this and they shouldn’t be bigger than 1.66 in my opinion.

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Back Newcastle at 1.80 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester City v Liverpool” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Liverpool are my surprise package of the season so far, I didn’t think that they would keep Suarez in the summer but they did and have reaped the benefits. I still had my doubts over them even when he returned though due to the selfishness of Sturridge and the aging Gerrard. However now that those two are out injured Liverpool are a team full of energy wanting to work for each-other. The performance at Spurs was the best performance I’ve seen this season, they closed them down high up the pitch and Spurs had no answers.

Having said all of that though Manchester City are no Spurs, If Liverpool press them high up the pitch City will kill them on the counter. If Liverpool sit back then they’ll get beaten anyway as they won’t be able to keep out a City side who have 25+ shots on goal. Whatever way I look at this goal expectancy is high, therefore the chances of a draw are theoretically diminished. I think both teams will score but at circa 1.4x I don’t think that’s the bet to have here. My personal belief is that City to win this is the value side of the bet at 1.80, I was expecting to see this priced at 1.66 – 1.70. Combining the odds I think City should be to win and the Bith Teams To Score odds gives me a price of around 2.55 for Both Teams To Score and Manchester City to win. Therefore I think the way to play this is backing City and Both Teams To Score at 3.00. I looked at the idea of backing City with Paddy Power, therefore getting money back if it’s a draw but I think that City will outscore Liverpool. City’s home form far outweighs what Liverpool have shown on the road throughout the season and that’s good enough for me.

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Back Man City and Both Teams To Score at 3.00 – Coral
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