Premier League 4th December

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Fulham v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

A lot has be said in the media and on forums about how Spurs offer nothing going forward and apparently they now can’t defend either, there’s no point repeating that here so instead I’m going to offer some facts;

Tottenham

  • Averaging 13.46 shots per game, the highest in the league
  • 47.43% of shots are on target, 6th highest in the league
  • Only 13.25% of shots turn to goals, the worst in the league

That 13.25% will improve over the course of the season unless you believe that Spurs are the worst side going forward since Derby went down with 11 points.

  • Averaging 7.62 shots conceded per game, 2nd in the league
  • 48.48% of these shots are on target, the worst in the league
  • 29.17% of these shots have turned into goals, 12th in the league

A lot of the damage done to their goals/shots against stats came courtesy of that Manchester City result (15 shots, 10 on target, 6 goals). Before that they had kept seven clean sheets and taking the Man City result out of things they concede an average of 0.61 goals per games.

The two things to take from that are a) Spurs should improve improve in-front of goal b) They are not bad defensively, despite one result.

Now when we compare that to Fulham, we see the complete difference in ability of these sides.

  • Average 6.46 shots per game, worst in the league
  • 44.05% of those are on target, 10th in the league
  • 29.73% of those end up as goals, 8th in the league

The bottom two stats may looks good, but when they can only muster 6 shots per game it starts to fall down a bit. Fulham have only score on more than one occasion once this season and that’s when they scored four at Crystal Palace, they got two unbelievable goals that day and that type of thing can’t be relied upon. If you take that result out of things they have scored 11 goals in 13 games, an average of 0.58 per game and they’ve failed to score on 5 occasions already this season.

Defensively they are even worse, two clean sheets kept and 24 conceded so far and with the below stats it’s likely to get worse;

  • Concede an average of 15.23 shots against per game, the worst in the league
  • 41.92% of those are on target, 7th in the league
  • 28.92% of these become goals, 11th in the league

With Fulham conceding around about five more shots per game than the traditional league average, playing the team that have the most shots may not be the best first game in charge for Rene Meulensteen.

My goal expectations for Tottenham in this are set at 3, with the best that Fulham can hope for being 1. Turning that into a bet I had to look at the Asian Handicap markets and I think the best bet has to Tottenham -2. This means that if they win by two clear goals then you’ll get your money back, if they win by three or more then you’ll make 325% on your money.

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Back Tottenahm -2 Asian Handicap at 4.25 – Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This is very much like the West Brom match at the weekend, Newcastle are starting to look like they are a little too good for these mid-table sides. A mid-table side is what Swansea have become, they’ve struggled in the Europa League and they’ve only beaten the bottom three clubs this season.

Swansea have already conceded four goals at home to Manchester United, three to Stoke and two against Arsenal. They haven’t beaten a top half side this season, losing five of their six games and drawing the other one.

I’m not certain Newcastle will do enough for the win but I think they’ll go close, I think that they have enough going forward, they’ve scored in 11 consecutive league games, should be enough for them to take at least a point. With Newcastle being given a 1/4 goal start (o,-0.5) on the asian lines they looks to be the bet as a draw will still bring in a small profit.

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Back Newcastle +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.025 – Bet365
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Cherry Analysts

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