Premier League 28th January

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Cardiff” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Manchester United have gone under 2.50 goals in five of their eleven home games this season, whilst Cardiff have failed to score in six of their eleven away trips. My goal expectancies for this match are Man Utd 1.48 and Cardiff 0.84. Using that as the basis for my distribution of goals I think Under 2.50 goals is the way to go. Both Teams To Score No, is priced at 1.6x which is about right. So if that forecast is correct then Unders is overpriced on the basis that Man Utd will need to score three goals to beat that line. Man Utd have only score 3+ goals in a home match twice this season, can they be ‘trusted’ to do it again?

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.588361702 0.411638298
Predicted Odds 1.699634761 2.429317204
YES NO
BTTS 0.396009722 0.603990278
Predicted Odds 2.525190528 1.65565579

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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 2.38 – BetVictor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Norwich v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The goal expectancies I have for this game are Norwich 1.03 and Newcastle 1.52. With that supremacy Newcastle are the team to side with. Norwich have only scored more than one goal three times all season, compare that to Newcastle who have score two or more in half (11) of their games.  I was seriously expecting Newcastle to be in the 2.10 – 2.30 range for this. They’ve drifted all week, maybe to do with the Cabaye news, but that doesn’t mean they won’t score goals. In terms of correct score betting, the best bets all look to be on the Newcastle to win to nil side of the market. Even Newcastle to Win To Nil looks a big price at 4.80, I have it priced at 3.59.

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Back Newcastle at 2.65 – Winner for 64.43% of Total Stake
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Back Newcastle To Win To Nil  at 4.80 – Coral for 35.57% of Total Stake
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

In a combined 44 matches that these sides have played this season, Both Teams To Score No has happened 50% (22) times. Not an overwhelming trend but one which makes the 2.15 that Winner are offering on the No side of that market look out of line. Using Shot data from this season I have the below predictions for this game, and seeing as the bookies have Unders priced at odds-on (1.8x), there’s no real mathematical reason for Both Team To Score No to be any higher than 2.00.

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.512055 0.487945
Predicted Odds 1.952915 2.049412
YES NO
BTTS 0.454927 0.545073
Predicted Odds 2.198157 1.834615

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.15 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea v Fulham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Swansea currently sit bottom of the form table, but more surprisingly is that Fulham have actually won two of their last six games. I’m not saying that the Londoners are nailed on to win this, personally I think it will be a draw (2-2). However the key point is that Swansea are far too short a price at 1.75, I have them at nearer 2.10. All the ‘value’ in the correct score market is on the Away victory scorelines, or the 2-2 and 3-3 draws. The best way to cover take Swansea on in this match is to back Fulham with a generous Asian Handicap. Taking them +0.75 (+0.5, +1) means that if they do only get beaten by one goal, then half stakes will be returned.

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Back Fulham +0.75 (+0.5, +1) Asian Handicap at 1.98 – Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Crystal Palace v Hull Tigers” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

  • Crystal Palace – Both Teams To Score Yes has happened six (27%) times this season.
  • Hull Tigers – Both Teams To Score Yes has happened eight (36%) times this season.

That’s a combined total of 31% for the year. If a ‘yes’ trend was that strong we’d see Both Teams To Score Yes priced in the 1.55 – 1.66 range. Generally the markets for this match are priced in that range fro the No side of the market, however Winner are going out on a limb again and offering 1.83 on Both Teams NOT scoring.

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.638260884 0.361739116
Predicted Odds 1.566757458 2.764423188
YES NO
BTTS 0.394982097 0.605017903
Predicted Odds 2.531760322 1.65284365

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.83 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Everton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

So, we have a side who score lots of goals against the bottom half of the league against a side with the 2nd best defense of all sides. These sides basically cancel each other out, goal expectancies are Liverpool 1.57, Everton 1.45. However I still wouldn’t want to get involved in Both Team to Score Yes at 1.5x, despite the relative arguments for that happening. However I’m also not backing both teams to score no, simply because I think they both will, unless Everton win to nil.

The safest and best way to play this is to just lay Liverpool at odds-on or back Everton/Draw Double chance. The Market makers have already ‘given’ Everton a goal by pricing up both teams to score so short. That would mean Liverpool need to score at least two to win if they’re right. Everton have only conceded two or more goals five times this season. Liverpool shouldn’t be odds-on when comparing the relative strengths of these sides as they are almost identical.

[symple_box color=”red” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Lay Liverpool at 1.87 – Betfair
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