Premier League 18th January

I’ve spent the last week working on a new goal expectancy calculator. The reason for this was due to the fact that I wasn’t finding enough consistent form. I now intend to spend the rest of the season having more bets as previously I was working out the best bets in each games, however not placing most of them. This became annoying as I was consistently getting six or seven from ten in my #ToiletRollAcca but not making a profit from the day as I had too few singles.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Fulham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

My calculations for this game have  the below expectancy;

Arsenal 2.07
Fulham 0.97

With those expectancies the best bets look to be Arsenal to win to nil, as they’ve done this on five occasions from their ten home games so far. Fulham have also failed to score in six of their ten away games, losing all of these. However Arsenal aren’t a side who go out and beat teams four, five or six nil so to try and get more ‘value’ out of the game I’ve looked at the correct score markets and that is where I’ll be placing my money. The above goal expectancies mean that the most likely score are going to be 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1. I’m discounting 2-1 due to Arsenals strong defensive home record v Fulham’s poor offensive away record. Dutching 2-0 and 3-0 works out at just under 3/1.

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Back Arsenal 2-0 at 7.50 at Bet Victor for 53.13% of Total Stake
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Back Arsenal 3-0 at 8.50 at Bet Victor for 46.88% of Total Stake
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Aston Villa” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

My calculations for this game have  the below expectancy;

Liverpool 1.82
A Villa 1.09

Liverpool have been almost perfect at home this season, they’ve beaten every bottom half side they’ve played at Anfield. In half of their home games they’ve conceded a goal. Aston Villa have scored in seven of their ten away games, compared to only five of their home games. Liverpool are better at home, but concede the odd goal. Villa are better away and score goals on the counter attack. Both Teams To Score looks a good bet based on the stats at 2.05, however I think we can take it further by adding Liverpool to win into that. Their superior home record and strike-force should see that they get the three points in this, but the stats say that Aston Villa can get on  the scoresheet.

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Back Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 2.88 – Ladbrokes
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Norwich v Hull” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Norwich 1.03
Hull 1.37

I can’t have Norwich for this game, despite Hulls poor away record they have only played two of the bottom ten sides, drawing both of those. Norwich have only score more than one goal on three occasions this season, so an expectancy of them only getting one goal is accurate. With Hull having the ‘advantage’ of +0.34 on my expectancies I think the way to play this match is to take them with the -0.25 (0,-0.5) Asian Handicap line.

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Back Hull -0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.60 – Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Ham v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

West Ham 1.14
Newcastle 1.40

My expectancy here has Newcastle ahead by 0.26 and that supremacy is enough for me to want to side with Newcastle in some form in this match. Newcastle -0.25 seems to be the best bet here, with half of your stake returned in the event of a draw. Andy Carroll may be back for West Ham and that may improve their Shot to Shot On Target % (currently at 26%) but they still have the issues at the back where they concede an average of 16.76 shots per game. To put that into some context if West Ham let Crystal Palace (the most lightweight attack) have that many shots against them, Palace’s goal expectancy would be 0.93. Newcastle are a lot better going forward than Palace so I don’t see West Ham keeping them out.

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Back Newcastle -0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.20 – Winner
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