Premier League 29th January

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Last night I wrote how Both Teams To Score No was one of the value bets in the Liverpool v Everton game at circa 2.6x, however I opted not to back it. I find myself in the same situation today.

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.386181658 0.613818342
Predicted Odds 2.589454935 1.629146494
YES NO
BTTS 0.487682103 0.512317898
Predicted Odds 2.050516094 1.95191307

The value is clearly on Both Teams To Score No, seeing as it’s priced at 2.70. However Manchester City are also a ‘value’ bet in my book, I make them 1.87 to win but 2.00 is available. Yes, Spurs are in-form and Man City are ‘vulnerable’ on the road, but the facts are that they are a long way ahead of Spurs in terms of quality and the number of points they’ll finish on this season.

With that in mind and the ‘value’ on both teams not scoring I’m taking 80% of my total stake and placing it on Manchester City to win. I’m then ‘dutching’ the other 20% and covering the 0-2 and 0-3 scorelines.

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Back Manchester City at 2.00 – General for 80% of Total Stake
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Back 0-2 Correct Score at 13 – BetVictor for 12.36% of Total Stake
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Back 0-3 Correct Score at 21 – Winner for 7.64% of Total Stake
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