The Championship 18th January

I’ve spent the last week working on a new goal expectancy calculator. The reason for this was due to the fact that I wasn’t finding enough consistent form. I now intend to spend the rest of the season having more bets as previously I was working out the best bets in each games, however not placing most of them. This became annoying as I was consistently getting eight from twelve in my #ToiletRollAcca but not making a profit from the day as I had too few singles.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leeds v Leicester” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Leeds 1.24
Leicester 1.59

Leicester should be favourites for this game but they shouldn’t be 2.1x. Laying Leicester at 2.1x is the same as backing Leeds with a half a goal start. They’ve already lost to Sheffield Wednesday, Charlton and Doncaster on the road and these odds are a massive over reaction to the results last weekend. Every team has freak results and if we only judge teams on them we’d have a very different football landscape, for example Switzerland would have won the last World Cup as they beat Spain in the first game. Football and football teams need to be judged on long term trends and not their last result. Leicester could go to Leeds and win but it’s unlikely that they win there 47% of the time. The odds suggest that Leicester have a full goal start expectancy as opposed to +0.35 they actually have.

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Lay Leicester at 2.12 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Barnsley v Blackpool” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Barnsley 1.08
Blackpool 1.35

Neither of these side have a great goal expectancy so I’m going to concentrate my betting around goal markets. With under 2.50 goals being odds-on, which is understandable, it doesn’t make much sense that Both Teams To Score No can be backed at even money. If Both teams do score then I can see this ending 1-1 so I’m going to cover my stake by also backing that correct score.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.00 – Boylesports for 85.71% of Total Stake
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Box 1-1 Correct Score at 7.00 – Bet Victor for 14.29% of Total Stake
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Bournemouth v Watford” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Bournemouth 1.24
Watford 1.61

Watford have a superior goal expectancy in this of +0.37, that’s higher than what Leicester have over Leeds. Yet one is priced at 2.10 and the other at 2.70. Despite where Watford sit in the league they are still a better side than Bournemouth, they create more chances and give the opposition less. That  will be the difference between where these sides end up at the end of the season and at the prices it’s worth taking that chance that that’ll be the difference today.

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Back Watford at 2.70 – Coral
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Derby v Brighton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Derby 1.37
Brighton 1.28

The combined goal expectancy of these two sides in this game is 2.65. That’s understandable when you consider that Derby have gone over 2.50 goals in 68% of their games. Brighton games aren’t as impressive as that with only 36% going over the 2.50 goal line. However that’s more to do with their defence, as they’ve scored at least once in 80% of their matches. I’m going to trust my expectancy calculations for this and take the over 2.50 goals bet due to it looking overpriced at even money.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 2.00 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Doncaster v Wigan” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Doncaster 0.85
Wigan 1.43

Wigan are so far ahead in the goal expectancy in this that they are probably the bet of the weekend. They’ve won four of their last six league games since the change of manager, they’re scoring goals and have kept clean sheets in their last four games. Doncaster haven’t won since November and are struggling due to their lack of goals. They are the lowest scorers in the league and I don’t see them improving on that today. The goal expectancy has them getting less than a goal in this and they average less than a goal a game. This looks like a game that Wigan will win to nil and the goal expectancy calculations back this up.

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Back Wigan To Win To Nil at 3.00 – BetVictor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Millwall v Ipswich” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Millwall 1.12
Ipswich 1.73

Ipswich have a superiority of +0.61 which is higher than Leicester and Wigan, however they are a lot bigger price than both of these sides. Millwall have changed manager and that may have something to do with the reaction in odds. 2.75 is too big a price for a side who are fourteen points clear of their rival and so far superior in the expectancy of goals.

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Back Ipswich at 2.75 – Bet365
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Nottingham Forest v Blackburn” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Nottm Forest 1.26
Blackburn 1.11

This game has a lower expectancy of goals than the Barnsley v Blackpool game yet we can back the draw at a much higher price. Under 2.50 goals is rated an odds-on chance, so therefore the draw price looks too high, usually with a low goal expectancy the draw would be in the 3.30 range. Forest have drawn more games (44%) than they’ve won this season so they look to be too short at 2.00. I don’t really see the need to get the Blackburn win on  my side as I don’t think they’ll win, Forest have only lost three times all season. The draw is the best bet in this match and if it doesn’t end a draw then Forest will win.

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Back Draw at 3.70 – Bet365
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