The Championship 25th January

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Blackburn v Derby” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I have my goal expectancies at Blackburn 1.28 and Derby 1.55.  Taking those into account and I have below odds

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.459764 0.540236
Predicted Odds 2.175029 1.851043
YES NO
BTTS 0.488111 0.511889
Predicted Odds 2.048713 1.953549

However with my goal expectancies I think that the best bet is to side with Derby. Blackburn may be in the same recent form as them, but we should see Derby having more shots and in theory more goals. Derby are the leagues biggest scorers away from home, averaging two goals per game and only failing to score once on the road. Defensively, at home, Blackburn are the third best in the league with seven clean sheets but they’ve failed to score themselves on five occasions.

I think the best bets in this are;

  • Derby -0.25 (0, -.0.5) Asian Handicap at 2.38 – Bet365/Bet Victor
  • Both Teams To Score No at 2.10 – General (This would have won in 9 of 13 Blackburn home games this season)
  • Blackburn 0-3 Derby at 46.0 – Winner

I’m taking those three bets and dutching them as follows.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Derby -0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.38 – Bet365 for 45.77% of Total Stake
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[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.10 – Bet Victor for 51.87% of Total Stake
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[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Derby 3-0 Correct Score at 46.0 – Winner for 2.37% of Total Stake
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Blackpool v Doncaster” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Paul Ince has been sacked after Blackpool’s awful run of form which has seen them lose eight and draw one of their last nine games. They’ve also failed to score in six of those games. Doncaster aren’t much better with six defeats in their last nine, but they at least managed and impressive 3-0 victory over Wigan last time, however that’s more of s ‘blip’ from the norm.

This game doesn’t offer much hope of goals, my goal expectancies are 1.29 and 1.05.

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.582184 0.417816
Predicted Odds 1.717669 2.3934
YES NO
BTTS 0.430249 0.569751
Predicted Odds 2.324238 1.755151

The chances of goals isn’t the only thing that’s too low, Blackpool should be 2.38. They have to be laid at 2.12.¬†Doncaster to win 1-0 also looks slightly over overpriced at 12.00. It’s unlikely that we’ll see Doncaster score more than one goal on the road as they’ve only managed to do that once all season.

My best bets for this game are;

  • Lay Blackpool at 2.12 – Betfair
  • Both Teams To Score No at 2.00 – Bet Victor
  • Blackpool 0 – 1 Doncaster at 12.00 – Bet Victor

I’m going to dutch two of those selections, as I really do like the look of 1-0 Doncaster.

[symple_box color=”red” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Lay Blackpool at 2.12 – Betfair for 86.46% of Total Stake
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[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Doncaster 1-0 at 12.00 – Bet Victor for 13.54% of Total Stake
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