West Brom v Everton

Recently I’ve been working a new football modelling process, I’ve now completed this and therefore I am now able to price up more markets with, hopefully, a better degree of accuracy. With this I’ve decided to change the way I stake for the rest of the season. I will will be staking £50 per football match and these bets will be spread out over markets such as Match Odds, Correct score and Over/Under x Goals. Like all models it cannot be 100% accurate and is only a guide to the likely-hood of an event occurring. It doesn’t take into account red cards or refereeing mistakes as it’s based on goals and although those events can be ‘modelled’ I don’t think they currently add much worth.

So starting with tonight’s match I have the below match odds;

West Brom – 4.18
Draw – 3.80
Everton – 2.10

I fancy Everton win this game however they aren’t a good bet at the prices, therefore I’ve looked at the correct score market. The value price in this market are (my prices in brackets);

Everton 2-0 at 11.50  (10.95)
Everton 1-0 at 9.00 (8.04)
West Brom 1-0 at 13.00 (11.82)

Under 2.50 Goals is priced at 1.91, however I have this priced at 1.81, therefore making it a value bet. However as I believe that Everton will win I’m going to leave this bet alone and just take the ‘cover’ of having West Brom 1-0

I’m going to ‘dutch’ my three correct score as below;

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Back Everton 2-0 at 11.50 – BetVictor for 31.62% of Total Stake
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Back Everton 1-0 at 9.00 – Stan James for 40.41% of Total Stake
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Back West Brom 1-0 at 13.00 – Bet Victor for 27.97% of Total Stake
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