Arsenal v Crystal Palace

As usual when Arsenal are at home, the expectancy is for them to score 3,4 or 5 goals. There’s no statistical reason to believe that Arsenal will come out and put three goals past a Palace side who only conceded more three or more twice all season. Arsenal have also only managed to score three or more in only two home hames this season.

  • Arsenal 4.82 SOT = 1.644186345
  • Palace 3.71 SOT = 0.77790079

All the value in this match is on the low score lines, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1. Although 2-0 is the most likely score. However whichever way I look at this game I see no reason for Over 2.50 Goals to be a heavy favourite. I have that market priced as below;

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.563949 0.436051
Predicted Odds 1.77321 2.293309

The bet may not land, there could be a red card or Palace could take the lead but the reasons for backing ‘unders’ are obvious;

  • Arsenal average 1.82 goals per home
  • Arsenal have 7 clean sheets from 11 home games, conceding an average of 0.55 goals per game
  • 73% of Arsenal home games have been Under 2.50 Goals
  • Crystal Palace have failed to score in 6 of 11 away games, scoring an average of 0.45 goals per game
  • 73% of Crystal Palace away games have had Under 2.50 Goals

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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 2.25 – Bet Victor

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