Premier League 12th February

Twitter followers of mine will know about my constant ramblings about the Both Teams To Score markets. The Market is heavily skewed towards yes, therefore ‘no’ is generally the value call. This doesn’t mean you should back no in every match (I don’t have the data for it but at a guess you’d probably make a profit), you should be selective and try to maximise returns. Sometimes ‘yes’ can be the value call, in the case of Southampton v Stoke at the weekend.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

So with that in mind here’s is my take on the ‘big’ game of the night. Everybody is expecting there to be goals in this and they have good reasons for that, Arsenal have score in all but one home game and Manchester United have only failed to score once on the road. All well and good, the bet must be Both Teams To Score Yes then, not by my calculations;

Goal Expectancies

  • Arsenal 1.567878
  • Man Utd 1.324154

I’ve take the above and ‘modelled’ them to give the below view of how the Both Teams To Score Market should look;

YES NO
BTTS 0.493647 0.506353
Predicted Odds 2.025738 1.974908

There’s a big difference to the odds the bookies are offering to what I believe they should be. The bookies have yes 1.65 and no 2.40.

Taking it further we can look into the record of Arsenal matches this season at The Emirates Stadium;

Played 12 with 8 (75%) ending BTTS No

Those no results aren’t only against the bottom sides either, Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool have all failed to score there and Everton didn’t get their solitary goal there until the 84th minute.

Both teams have only failed to score in three (25%) Manchester United away games, however they failed to fin the net at Liverpool and got their goals against Man City and Chelsea when the game was already lost. Both Teams may score in this match, however I believe it’s more likely that they won’t, which makes the odds against available on no the value bet.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.40 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This is a tougher game to call than at 1st look. Crystal Palace are an improving side who bought well in the January transfer window and Everton look to be the exact opposite. The home sides lack of a goal scorer in the wake of Lukaku’s injury and the sale of Jelavic has left them looking very light up front. Even before that there was a leaning towards under 2.50 goals in this match;

Goal Expectancies

  • Everton 1.432721
  • Palace 0.876898

With those goal expectancies I have the most likely scorelines at 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Everton matches have gone under 2.50 goals 52% of the time this season with Crystal Palace matches finishing under 72% of the time.

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.59349 0.40651
Predicted Odds 1.684949 2.459962

With unders priced at 1.85 with Ladbrokes, that may look like the best bet to have. However I think that Everton need to be taken on in this somehow, The low goal expectancy makes their odds of 1.50 for the win unappealing and I’m instead interested in the Asian Handicap markets siding with Crystal Palace. Backing the away side with a +1 start means that an away win or a draw will provide a winner and if Palace lose by 1 goal stakes will be returned. Everton have only beaten that handicap line four times all season, which is only one more time that Palace. With the Londoners now looking more of a threat since the addition of Tom Ince, Everton missing an attacking threat and a low goal expectancy I can defiantly see Palace getting something from the game or at least not losing by more than one goal.

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Back Crystal Palace +1 Asian Handicap at 2.20 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Newcastle United v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Newcastle have failed to score in six of their last seven league games as they look to have gone off the boil, which wasn’t helped by the sale of Yohan Cabaye. You could point to three of those games being against Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal and see how they failed to score in those. Then you look at the other games they failed to score in, Norwich,Sunderland and West Brom, and wonder what’s going on.

Tonight they face Tottenham and the expectation appears to be for both teams to score, currently priced at 1.67. However, not surprisingly, the best bet look to be both teams not to score;

YES NO
BTTS 0.470629 0.529371
Predicted Odds 2.124816 1.889034

With goal expectancies of Newcastle 1.294385 and Tottenham 1.325587 a correct score of 1-1 is theoretically the most likely, however that is then followed by 1-0 wins for either side.

Both Teams To Score No would have been a winner in 15 of Spurs’ 25 games this season (60%), whilst both teams have failed to score in 14 of Newcastle’s games (56%). Those stats again point to ‘no’ be the value call in the match and at 2.25 I’ll be getting involved.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.25 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

At the weekend I wrote about how Stoke are an improving side going forward and the duly score two goals at Southampton. Tonight they face a Swansea side who are hard to get a handle on, they have a lot of the ball but don’t do enough with it in my opinion.

Swansea have failed to score in seven away games so far this season, but six of those were against top half sides. They’ve scored in every home game bar one, so they do have the ability to get some goals. I have their goal expectancy tonight at 1.438354 so I can at least see them getting one goal. Stoke is as always a tough place to go, but it appears that their new ‘attacking’ style has taken away from their defensive abilities. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine games.

Stoke do look a lot better going forward at the moment, with a goal expectancy of 1.206858 for this match, there’s a 70% chance (in theory) of them scoring in this. With three goals against Chelsea and Liverpool along with two against Manchester United and one against Everton already at the Britannia this year they should be confident of getting on the scoresheet against a Swansea side who’s only clean sheets on the road came back in September.

Both Teams To Score Yes is available at 2.00, which is below the 2.12 I would of had it priced at. Taking a look at the Over/Under 2.50 Goals Market I have the below predicted odds;

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.50714 0.49286
Predicted Odds 1.971844 2.028972

Whist I agree that Under 2.50 Goals should be the favourite, but not as short as 1.53 – 1.65. At the odds of 2.38 I’m happy to take my chances on the Over 2.50 line. Both these side have gone ‘over’ in 48% of there games this season, which just on that stat makes it a 2.08 chance. So whatever way I look at it 2.38 is a decent price.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 2.38 – Coral
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