Premier League 1st February

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Ham v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I see the ‘value’ in this game as a Swansea victory. West Ham just concede too many shots for my liking. It’s true that they’ve kept some excellent clean sheets this season, however the majority of them have been away from home. They can’t set-up in the same way when playing at Upton Park and I think this will leave them exposed to Swansea on the counter attack.

Swansea have the joint third best away defensive record in the league, which shouldn’t be too troubled by West Ham’s poor front line. I’m expecting Swansea to have an extra shot on target in this and that’s where the game could be decided.

  • West Ham 3.47 SOT = 1.184423121 Goals
  • Swansea 5.02 SOT = 1.358126067 Goals

Swansea haven’t lost a game from a winning position all season, they have drawn three when winning. However West Ham have picked up ZERO points when they’ve gone behind. So if Swansea do take the lead the likelyhood is they’ll win. In terms of correct score betting 1-1 is a worthy favourite but doesn’t look to be too much value. The value calls are to side with Swansea winning 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. West Ham have already failed to score in ten games this season and despite the number of clean sheets they’ve kept (10) they’ve still conceded the same number of goals as Swansea (33).

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Back Swansea at 2.75 – Coral
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Cardiff v Norwich” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

  • Cardiff 4.06 SOT = 1.101825838
  • Norwich 4.73 SOT = 1.216059475

This is one of those games where you can’t really expect much to actually happen. 0-0 was 11.0 (10/1) yesterday and that looked to be the value call. However it’s now 10.0 (9/1) which looks about right. Cardiff have failed to score in over half of their games this season (12) whist Norwich have failed on nine occasions. That brings me to the Both Teams To Score No and Under 2.50 Goals Markets;

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.591302 0.408698
Predicted Odds 1.691185 2.446792
YES NO
BTTS 0.429035 0.570965
Predicted Odds 2.330812 1.751421

At the prices Under 2.50 Goals at 1.78 is a decent bet and so is, as usual, the Both Teams To Score No at 2.05 with Winner. I think it’s worth dutching the two, I’m hopeful of both landing as the only risk looks to be a 2-1 victory. If it end 1-1 then you’ll basically just get your money back. However one goal looks enough to win this and if that’s the case both bets will land.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.05 – Winner for 46.48% of Total Stake
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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 1.78 – BetVictor for 53.52% of Total Stake
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Aston Villa” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Like a few weeks ago Villa travel to Merseyside and they should be feeling confident. They’re better away from home, they managed to score four goals and fight back from 2-0 down in midweek and Everton have injury problems. I expect Villa to score again in this match and for that reason I want to side with them as Everton have been ‘looking wasteful’ in front of goal recently. Lukaku has stopped scoring and although they still have Mirallas but he can’t do it all on his own. Villa have the third best defensive away record in the league, averaging 1.18 goals conceded per game.

I have 1-1 as the most likely score in this and would have priced it at 8.07, however we can get 9.00 with BetVictor. I’m going to back that and also take Villa with a +0.75 (+0.5,+1) Asian Handicap.

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Back Aston Villa +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.23 – Bet Victor for 80.14% of Total Stake
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Back 1-1 Correct Score at 9.00 – Bet Victor for 19.86% of Total Stake
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Fulham v Southampton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I have Southampton at odds-on to win this. The facts are simple;

  • Fulham concede the 2nd highest average shot concede per game (18.04)
  • Southampton concede an average of 10 shots per game, 3rd best in the league

Keeping it simple Southampton are likely to have more shots than Fulham and therefore have a higher probability of scoring. My Shot On Target and Goal Expectancies highly favour an away victory and over 2.50 goals being scored.

  • Fulham SOT 3.62 = 1.083698733
  • Southampton SOT 5.43 = 1.73902016

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Back Southampton at 2.25 – Bet Victor
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