Premier League 22nd February

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Ham v Southampton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The side with the most clean sheets in the league, West Ham (13) face the side with the 4th most clean sheets (10), Southampton, who also concede the fewest shots per game, on average. It doesn’t really sound like it’s going to be a classic, yet the markets seem to think we’ll see goals or a 1-1 draw. Both Teams To Score Yes is priced as low as 1.63, however the Under/Over 2.50 markets don’t know what side of the fence they want to be on with both outcomes priced at odds-on. Whilst I agree that 1-1 is the most likely score line, it doesn’t appeal to me at odds of sub 7.00, I have it priced at 7.80. As normal the best value looks to be in the Both Teams To Score No market, I have the below predicted odds, so the 2.30 on both teams failing to score offered by Winner is my idea of value.

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.556352 0.443648
Predicted Odds 1.797424 2.254039
YES NO
BTTS 0.443992 0.556008
Predicted Odds 2.252292 1.798536

 

As already mentioned above these two sides are among the best in the league at keeping clean sheets. There both teams to score trends also point to at least one of them keeping another one here;

  • West Ham Both Teams To Score No – 17 from 26 games
  • Southampton Both Teams To Score No – 13 from 26 games

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.30 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Crystal Palace v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

It takes a brave man to back Manchester United at odds-on this season, they’ve already been beaten at short odds seven time this season and they haven’t even won half of their games. If I was a High Street bookie I would be looking to lay them this weekend for as much as possible for any prices south of 2.00. Manchester United might win but everything has its price and with the low expectancies of goals in this game they have to be taken on in some way and the best way to do that, in my opinion, is to side with Crystal Palace on some form of Asian Handicap. I’m stopping short of backing the home side outright or laying the draw as I’m not confident enough to see Palace as a goalscoring threat yet.

Backing Palace with a +1 start on the Asian Handicap market means that stakes will be returned if the lose ┬áby one goal, as the did away at Chelsea and Manchester City. Palace have beaten or covered that handicap in 11 of the 13 games since Pulis has been in charge so at 1.88 it seem the way to go. I think there’s about a 74% chance of stakes at least being returned with this bet, so that’s how I’m playing it.

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Back Crystal Palace +1 Asian Handicap at 1.88 – Bet365
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