Premier League 8th February

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

On the face of it this looks like a very tight game to call. However I think that all the value lies with Arsenal. Liverpool may have this great forward line, but Arsenal have an excellent defensive record. I still think that it’s hard to judge Liverpool at home, they’ve beaten all the bottom clubs and scored plenty of goals. Their biggest test so far, at Anfield, was Everton and they passed that with flying colours, but Everton didn’t really turn up that day.

I see this game going against the grain of Liverpool home matches. I think we’ll see more of an ‘Arsenal’ type profile to the game, that is a tight first half with Arsenal being the dominant side in the second half. With that in mind I think the best bets are below;

  • Half-time – Draw / Full-time – Arsenal (8.00 Bet Victor)
  • Arsenal To Win To Nil (8.00 Coral)
  • Arsenal (3.40 Coral)
  • Arsenal +0.25 (0, +0.5) Asian Handicap (2.00 Winner)

In terms of scorelines I have 1-1 as my most likely outcome with a 10.77% chance, so I’d want odds of 9.2 before backing that. All the ‘value’ score lines are on the Arsenal side of the market;

Score Home Away Chance of Outcome Predicted Odds Best Odds
0-1 0.212158 0.327574 0.069497491 14.38900862 15
0-2 0.212158 0.255839 0.054278418 18.4235289 23
0-3 0.212158 0.133209 0.02826142 35.38392665 56
1-2 0.328935 0.255839 0.084154485 11.88290791 13
1-3 0.328935 0.133209 0.043817144 22.82211753 29

Purely from a ‘where is the value’ perspective Arsenal are the team to side with in this match, and that’s my only real opinion on it. If I was pushed for a scoreline I’d say 1-0 Arsenal. Therefore I ant to be on Arsenal to at least get something from the game.

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Back Arsenal +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.00 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Aston Villa v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.549477714 0.450522
Predicted Odds 1.819910023 2.219646
YES NO
BTTS 0.452691 0.547309
Predicted Odds 2.20901233 1.827121

The above table is how I have priced the relevant markets, and whilst the Under 2.50 Goals market is priced up correctly with the bookies, Both Teams To Score No isn’t. You can get 2.15 with Winner on ┬áboth teams failing to find the net and that is the bet to have. Both teams have failed to score in seven of Aston Villa’s twelve home games (58%), in eight of West Hams’ away games both teams have failed to score (66%).

That’s where the value is and that’s where the trend points to, so there doesn’t seem to be a reason not to place the ‘no’ bet. West Ham can’t even point to their new goal scoring/chance creating threat of Andy Carroll, as he begins a three game suspension for his red card last weekend.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.15 – Winner
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Stoke” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Despite the strong ‘no’ trend for Both Teams To Score, everything has it’s price and ‘yes’ is too big in this match.

YES NO
BTTS 0.449167 0.550833
Predicted Odds 2.226343 1.815433

Stoke may not have scored in any of their last three away games and have also failed to score in seven of their twelve road trips. However they have got a few goals in them. The score two in beating man Utd last weekend and they also got two when they went to Old Trafford earlier in the season. Three goals against Liverpool again at home, but it shows that they can find the net. Defensively Southampton are pretty solid, five clean sheets from their twelve home games is good but it’s not a stat that makes me think Stoke cannot score.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score Yes at 2.30 – Coral
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