The Championship 22nd February

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Middlesbrough v Leeds” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Have Middlesbrough done enough to be 2.10 at home to a top half side? I don’t think so. I have the below goal expectancies for this match;

  • Middlesbrough 1.328985
  • Leeds 1.293702

As you can see those rating as pretty close, so with that I’m going to take Middlesbrough on. The home side haven’t won any of their last five games, that included three 0-0 draws and they failed to score in the other two, that’s five games without scoring a goals. Leeds aren’t fairing much better, they’ve lost five of their last eight, but they do have goals in them, with Ross McCormack. Leeds away record is a bit of a worry, with eight defeats on the road already. Middlesbrough have only been beaten twice at The Riverside this season but they have drawn seven home games. I don’t see how anyone could be confident on either of these sides and the draw look the most likely outcome to help both these sides chances of finishing 12th and 13th. This bet is all about the prices for me, Middlesbrough are too short and haven’t shown me enough for them to have a 47% chance of winning. I’d much rather back Leeds at 2.17 with a +0.25 start, meaning that half stakes will be voided if it’s a draw and the other half wins.

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Back Leeds +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.17 – BetVictor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Brighton v Wigan” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Stats wise this is the most boring game of the weekend, I have both sides in this with a goal expectancy of below 1.

  • Brighton Goal Expectancy 0.999533
  • Wigan Goal Expectancy 0.993798

The expectancies of goals is so low that even though the draw is priced a 3.30 it’s still the ‘value’ call. There is nothing between these sides, they are 7th and 8th in the table, they’ve both played 30 games, they both have 46 points and a goal difference of +7. It’s impossible to see anything other that a low scoring game, one goal will probably win it but at the prices I’m backing the draw and I wouldn’t put anybody off the 0-0 at 8.50, I have it priced at 7.33.

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Back the draw at 3.30 – General
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