West Ham v Norwich

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This isn’t a game that really fills anyone with confidence, we have two teams in a relegation battle and neither of them are particularly big goalscorers. The ‘unders’ treedns in this game are as follows;

West Ham

  • Average 1.04 goals per game
  • 24% of games this season have ended 0-0
  • 52% of games under 2.50 goals
  • 12 clean sheets this season (leagues highest)


  • Average 0.76 goals per game
  • 16% of games have ended 0-0
  • 16% of games have ended in a 1-0 Norwich victory
  • 64% of games under 2.50 goals
  • 9 clean sheets this season

The stats support the theory that this is going to be a tight and cagey contest, a lot of people may see this as a game that both teams ‘need’ to win, however I see the opposite. After West Ham picking up seven points from their last three games I think they’ll see this as one not to lose. I also think Norwich will take the ‘must not lose’ attitude to this after their draw at home to Man City on Saturday any points on the road should be seen as a bonus.

My Goal Expectancies for this have;

  • West Ham at 1.281060207
  • Norwich at 1.022647118

Using that I have priced the Over/Under 2.50 Goals Market as follows;

Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.595056 0.404944
Predicted Odds 1.680514 2.469477

Even though unders is still an odds-on shot, priced at 1.87 it is still the ‘value’ call. Hopefully there isn’t an early away goal as this will accelerate the goal scoring as West ham will then need to come out and attack. An early West Ham goal would be too bad as we’ve seen that they can soak up pressure, by virtue of their twelve clean sheets.

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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 1.91 – William Hill

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