I’ve added a new sum into my calculations that I use to predict my football odds and for that reason I’m going to cut back a lot of my football betting for the rest of the season. I want to build a model that is more accurate and more automatic in preparation for the 2014-15 season.
A good place to start seem to be a live game between two title contenders. Even though nobody has given Arsenal a chance of winning the league all season, they are still only four points off the top with a game in hand. That’s exactly the same position that Liverpool are in and they are seen as title contenders.
I have the below predicted odds for today’s game, based around my current goal expectancy calculations;
The blue highlighted cells show what I believe are the value ‘back’ bets, with the pink cells showing what I believe are the value lay odds (not including commission).
My calculations have a Chelsea win priced at 2.00 (evens) or another way to look at it Double Chance – Arsenal/Draw should be 2.00.
Chelsea are currently 1.90 to lay on Betfair, which effectively means that you are backing Arsenal or the Draw at 2.05 after commission at 5%. That’s where the ‘value’ is in the Match Odds markets for this game and that’s where I’ve placed my money.
Over 2.50 goals also looks to be a value bet, I have it priced at 1.71, yet 2.12 is available on Betfair Exchange after commission. With six of my seven ‘value’ correct scores going over the 2.50 goal line I am also taking that price. The supporting stats for over 2.50 goals in this match are;
- Chelsea have gone over 2.50 goals in 67% of their home games
- Chelsea have the third best home attack in the league, averaging 2.20 goals per game
- Arsenal have gone over 2.50 goals in 60% of their away games
- Arsenal have the fourth best away attack in the league, averaging 1.80 goals per game
- Arsenal are only the ninth best defence on the road, with an average of 1.40 goals conceded per game
The stats that go against over 2.50 goals are;
- Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 47% of home games, conceding an average of 0.60 goals per game
Those stats support my belief that 1-1 is the most likely correct score but it offers no value. I’m happy to take Chelsea on and also back a high scoring match. If one of the win then it will bring a profit.
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Lay Chelsea at 1.90 – Betfair
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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 2.18 – Betfair