Dubai World Cup Night – 29th March 2014

Being drawn wide (13+) at Meydan is a disadvantage, except for the 5 furlong sprints. With that in mind I am going to put a line through all the horses drawn wide.

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CALVARYMAN won a trial for this race easily last time out at Meydan, in that race he had five of today’s rivals over five lengths behind him, I don’t see how they will improve to beat time, therefore a line goes through Simenon, Star Empire, Certerach, Saddlers Rock and Moment in Time. The wide draws for Sheikhzayedroad and Now We Can have take them out of my equations. That leaves;

  • Ernest Hemingway
  • Joshua Tree
  • Songcraft
  • Dabadiyan
  • Seismos
  • Jamr
  • Ralston Road

Of those Ernest Hemingway, Joshua Tree and Seismos look the only real dangers. However this is Ernest Hemingway’s first run of the season and he was disappointing last time out. Seismos looks held by Joshua Tree on the form of their meeting in Canada last October, that doesn’t look a great race so they’ll both likely need to show improvement.

Cavalryman won this race last year, has a good prep run under his belt and looks the best horse in the race. He’s a worthy favourite, and the 3.75 available looks decent value.

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Back Cavalryman at 3.50 – General

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I’ve backed AMBER SKY for this race and even though Shea Shea has been draw in 12, which is the best stall, I still think that Amber Sky is the bet at 4.50 starting from stall 8. He should be able to get across and get the rail from there. My full race preview can be found here.

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The worlds richest horse race is obviously going to attract a high caliber of horse, at the head of the market we have last years Epsom Derby winner Ruler of the World. I’m not sure why he is favourite though, that Derby looks a weak renewal with only 6 winners coming from the fields combined 54 runs since, with 4 of those wins coming from the 200/1 outsider who now runs in Class 4 Handicaps on the all-weather at Kempton. Dawn Approach is another winner to come from that race and he didn’t stay the Derby trip.

The horse that I’m interested in is SANSHAAWES, this horse is the only one in the field to have won over course and distance apart from Prince Bishop who beat him by 1 and 1/4 lengths here last time out. However the South African horse was drawn wide that day, so from stall five I believe he can turn that form around. African Story was also in that race, however he finished in 8th without any obvious excuses therefore I don’t want to be placing my money on him.

The two Hong Kong horses, Military Attack and Akeed Mofeed are probably the two classiest horses in the race so I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them won. However at the prices I’d rather back the horse who we know will handle the conditions and is already settled in Dubai. I will have a few pounds on the 8-4-5 combination tricast though but my main bet will be an each-way play on Sanshaawes.

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Back Sanshaawes each-way at 15.00 – Betfred






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