The Championship 1st March

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Bournemouth v Doncaster” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Bournemouth at odds-on? Backing them at that price long term looks like it’ll lead to the poor house. They’re only six points and three places better off in the league that Doncaster and they’ve only won one of their last eight games. Doncaster aren’t a great team by any stretch of the imagination but they have won two of their last eight and they’ve also managed to keep three clean sheets in that run. In terms of goals expected I have the below;

  • Bournemouth 1.342933
  • Doncaster 1.229941

Bournemouth should be favourites but they shouldn’t be below 2.40, so I have no idea where the the 1.73 has come from, I’d be reluctant to back Leicester at home to Doncaster at that price.

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Back Doncaster +0.50 Asian Handicap at 2.30 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Burnley v Derby” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancy

  • Burnley 1.411248
  • Derby 1.295841
Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.49189 0.50811
Predicted Odds 2.032976 1.968077

Over 2.50 Goals is priced at 2.05 for this and that looks to be where the value is. Burnley have gone ‘over’ in four of their last eight games and their season average Total Goals per game so far this season is 2.38, with overs landing 44% of the time. That’s an unders trend, however when Derby are added into it, the goal expectancy of this match swings towards overs. Derby matches have averaged 3.13 goals per game and overs has landed 59% of the time. Derby have won their last three games 1-0, which can be seen as a negative for over 2.50 goals. However it’s all about price, and despite the most likely score being 1-1, the Overs side of the market is the bet at odds-against.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 2.05 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Ipswich v Birmingham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Birmingham’s away record against bottom half sides is played six, won six. I know Ipswich aren’t a bottom half side but they’ve also won at Blackburn, the team above Ipswich. The margins between the teams in this league mean that almost every team couldn’t complain with a mid-table finish. Ipswich showed in their last home game that they are not one to trust at odds-on and I really like the look of 1-1 in this game. I have goal expectancies at;

  • Ipswich 1.321707
  • Birmingham 1.192254

I want to side with Birmingham at the odds and at 2.25 with a +0.25 start I see the biggest risk to that being a 1-0 Ipswich win. I do expect Birmingham to score the, they have the 7th best goal scoring record on the road, averaging 1.16 goals per game. I feel that one goal should be enough for them to get at least a point.

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Back Birmingham +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.25 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester v Charlton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

  Under Over
2.50 Goals 0.549393 0.450607
Predicted Odds 1.820189 2.219231

Under 2.50 Goals is priced at 2.10 for this, however I believe that it should be priced at odds-on. I think the strength of Leicester is skewing the market a bit. My goal expectancies have Leicester with 1.56581 and Charlton with 0.912483. Looking at those 1-0 and 2-0 are two of the most likely scores. I think that the overs will only land if Charlton score. Despite the Londoners league position they’ve only conceded more than two goals on the road in two of their fifteen away games. Their problem is scoring goals, they’ve failed to find the net in five of their away games and have only scored more than one goal twice, those were against the two sides below them in the league.

With Charlton not the worst defensive side I can see Leicester having to work hard before eventually breaking them down and winning 2-0. At odds-against Under 2.50 Goals is definitely the value.

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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 2.10 – Boylesports
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