Grand National Meeting Day 1

The Grand National meeting has a bit of the ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ feel to it for me. After the highlights of Cheltenham and Dubai we now have three days of racing without any races I’m particularity looking forward to, so I’ll be keeping stakes small.

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Calipto is the best horse in this race, his irons snapped in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, so I expect him to reverse the places with Guitar Pete. The Nicholls horse beat ACTIVIAL when I went to Newbury last year, however Harry Fry has kept this horse fresh for this race, whereas Calipto ran at  The Festival, less than three weeks ago. The selection was impressive last time out when defeating Commissioned by 3 and 1/2 lengths in the Adonis Hurdle a Kempton.

On form lines involving Calipto/Activial, I’ve put a line through Commissioned, Agreement, Baradari and Broughton as they’ll need to show significant improvement to beat even one of those. Fox Norton looks an interesting horse on paper, however he hasn’t been seen since December when he beat Broughton by a head. If that’s the level of his form then he will need to also improve a lot.

My feeling here is that Activial has been aimed at this race and without having at hard race at The Festival he will hopefully be in peak condition to reverse his form with Calipto, who had a hard race at Cheltenham. Calipto is a worthy favourite  but I’d have Activial at 4.00 (3/1).

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Back Activial at 5.00 – General

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Silviniano Conti had really tough race, when he finished fourth in the Gold Cup. Last year he fell in the Gold Cup and then came to this race at Aintree, he was sent off Even money favourite and finished third. He was behind First Lieutenant that day and I believe he’ll be behind him again this time round. The Gigginstown horse has been kept fresh for this and should go well. However I expect them o both be behind DYNASTE. The Pipe team skipped The Cheltenham Gold Cup and sent him to The Ryanair instead, he won that race comfortably. I’m not worried about him having run in that race as it wouldn’t have taken as much out of him as say The Gold Cup and he ran at Cheltenham last year before coming to this meeting and cruising home in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. I’m expecting him to improve again and I believe that he’ll show he’s a genuine Grade 1 staying chaser.

Argocat, Menorah and Houblon Des Obeaux aren’t Grade 1 quality so I can’t have any of those.

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Back Dynaste at 2.88 – General

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This could have been an excellent race, but the likes of Hurricane Fly, Jezki and Annie Power won’t be here. THE NEW ONE will win this. He’s already beaten Rock On Ruby, Pitz Zig and Grumeti this season. Grandouet just isn’t good enough and the same goes for Irish Saint. Diakail is second favourite by default, but in truth he’s no good either. The New One is a top class hurdler and the only way I see him getting beating is if he’s brought down.

In truth he should probably be a 1.25 shot, but I’m not really interested in backing horses at long odds on in singles. I do however think he’s value so my advice is to add him into any multiples that you have going on the day. I’m going to back Activival/Dynaste/The New One treble at 20.16 with William Hill as well as having singles on Activial and Dynaste.

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