Newbury 12th April

The Flat season gets going properly today and there are three group race to get stuck into at Newbury.

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ASTONISHING was astonishing when she won at Newmarket in a listed race at the tail end of last season. She steps up in class today but with 3lbs sex allowance and a profile that looks like she can improve again. She quickened nicely last time out and stayed on strongly, that would suggest she had plenty left in the tank.

We know all there is to know about Noble Mission and he’s had enough poor runs for me to ignore him here and with his for tying in with Quiz Mistress I’m putting a line through her too. Mutashaded has Group Two form and is rightly favourite for this race after his 3rd behind Hillstar at Battle of Marengo last time out. However both of those horses have been disappoint in their runs since.

At the odds I’m happy to go with the 4 year old filly in the belief that she will be able to improve again. Coral are currently priced at 6.00 and will give you upto £25 back, as a free bet, if your horse finishes 2nd by a head or less.

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Back Astonishing at 6.00 – Coral

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AL THAKHIRA is the best horse in this race, she was very impressive at Newmarket two starts ago before disappointing in the Breeders’ Cup on fast ground that was far from ideal. She’s dropping back down in class from that run and also back in trip (8 to 7). With the softer ground we should hopefully see her back to her best. At 5.00 I think she’s worth taking the chance on as I believe she has shown the best form in the race and if it wasn’t for the flop over in America she’s be considerably shorter.

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Back Al Thakhira at 5.00 – 888Sport

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On paper this looks competitive race, however I’m not so sure. We have Royal Ascot winner and Newmarket Group 2 winner Berkshire, on the face of it he has solid form but of the horses that have finished behind him haven’t done much since so a line goes through him. Astaire has won a Group 1 over 6 furlongs on his last start, however the horses in behind haven’t been seen or haven’t done much, therefore I’m inclined to put a line through him as I have a feeling hell need significant improvement to get beat some very good horses over 7 furlongs.

In reality this race is between KINGMAN and Night of Thunder. Both of these horses have had two starts and they won them both. Kingman won a Group 3 with recent Meydan 2nd Emirates Flyer in behind. That form should be enough to think that he stays further than 7f but also has the pace and strength to beat horses over 7f. Night of Thunder has done nothing wrong but he hasn’t beaten any horse that have shown some consistent form and that puts me of backing him today.

My preference is for Kingman, who I was expecting to see at around the 2.50 (6/4) mark.

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Back Kingman at 3.00 – Bet Victor

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