The Championship 8th April

This season hasn’t gone too well for me, my football balance for this site is currently down. This is due to a combination of a poor start and me not really enjoying my betting, therefore  not turning over enough money. Thankfully all my other events, horses, in-play football, x-factor, tennis etc have brought me a profit.

Going back through my results earlier today it stood out that my most successful bets have been in the Both Teams To Score Markets. This is probably due to the fact I like to go against the grain in these bets  and I generally enjoy looking at the statistics for them. So for the next month that’s all I’ll be concentrating on.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Charlton v Yeovil” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

YES NO
BTTS 0.414982 0.585018
Predicted Odds 2.409743 1.709349

The last time both teams scored in a Charlton match was their FA Cup tie at Sheffield Wednesday 11 games ago, on the 24th February. The last time both teams score in a Charlton league game was the 1st February, that’s 12 league games. Those stats may seem surprising but when you consider Charlton’s goalscoring record this season you can see how that’s possible;

  • Lowest scores in the league, 27 goals in 38 games (0.71 average)
  • Failed to score in 47% of games
  • At The Valley they have failed to score in 56% of their games

Both team have scored in only 5 of 18 Charlton home games (27.77%), with Charlton keeping a clean-sheet in 33% of their home games.

Yeovil have started to score some goals and both teams have found the net in their last 5 games. To be fair to Yeovil they do score goals on the road, they’ve only failed to score in 20% of their away games and average 1.15 goals per game on their travels. Defensively on their travels they concede an average of 1.90 goals per game.

The above points to an away win for me, with Yeovil grabbing a goal late in the 2nd half. I can see both sides trying to keep it tight until half time. If there was an early goal by Yeovil then you’d have to question whether Charlton would be able to break down a side who are likely to park the bus after that. Vise-versa could Yeovil breakdown Charlton away from home? I wouldn’t be too confident in either of these side coming from behind to get a point.

The bookmakers have Both Teams To Score No priced up as an odds-on shot, which I agree with. However if the ‘BTTS Yes’ trends were as strong as the ‘no’ ones for this match, then that market would be priced at 1.8x max.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.91 – Coral
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester v Brighton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

YES NO
BTTS 0.425204 0.574796
Predicted Odds 2.351815 1.739746

Leicester City have been promoted, this is their celebratory game after they didn’t play on Saturday. Leicester have only failed to score once at home all season, so the question in this game is – Can Brighton Score?

  • Leicester concede an average of 0.90 goals per game at The Walkers Stadium
  • The Foxes have kept clean sheets in 35% of their home games
  • Brighton are ranked 18th for away goal scoring, with an average of 0.85 goals per game
  • They’re not much better at home, ranked 18th averaging 1.25 goals per game
  • The Seagulls have failed to score in 45% of their away games

It doesn’t really look good for Brighton, they struggle to score goals wherever they play. On the brightside for Brighton they are the best defensive away side in the league;

  • 55% of games ending with a clean sheet
  • Concede an average of 0.80 goals per game on the road

Again we have strong trends for Both Teams To Score No and although that bet is priced at odds-on, like above, it still looks too big at 1.92.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.92 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Wigan v Millwall” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

YES NO
BTTS 0.433105 0.566895
Predicted Odds 2.30891 1.763995

Despite Millwall seemingly finding their shooting boots in the last few matches, scored in last four, they are still not a team to be trusted on the road. They’e averaged 0.80 goals per game away from The Den and have failed to score in 40% of their away matches.

They travel to a Wigan side who only concede an average of 1.00 goal per game at The DW Stadium, whilst keeping a clean sheet in 40% of their home games.

  • Wigan have played 20 games at home with both teams failing to score in 9 of those matches (45%)
  • Millwall have played 20 games away from home, with both teams failing to score in 10 of those (50%)

This market looks heavily balanced by some books on the ‘yes’ side, with them going 1.73. That’s made the ‘no’ side of the book available at 2.00, which is good enough to tempt me.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.00 – Coral
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