Eurovision 2014 – The Final

I wasn’t expecting much from this year at first, but it’s provided some excellent songs and entertainment. We’ve had catchy lyrics from The UK and Armenia, smut from Poland, a woman with a beard and the pure emotion of Hungary. I’ve now good a book together that I’m happy with and after a good week so far I’m just going to enjoy the show tonight.

Semi-Final 1 and Semi-Final 2 were both profitable evenings, with Belgium not qualifying at round 3/1 and Slovenia qualifying at 11/10. It was also helpful that in-running bets for Ireland and Macedonia missing out also paid off. Tonight we have the final, my original views on it can be found here. To be honest my views don’t differ too much now despite markets and iTunes love for The Netherlands and Austria.

That was a tweet of mine from yesterday. Hungary are my biggest winner with The UK and Spain ‘green’ in my book. Going back to what I wrote originally I still believe that this show is setup for Hungary or The UK to win. They both have late draws, in fact Molly is closing the show. The one I can’t get a handle on though is The Netherlands.

I like a bit of Country and Western music, but this song never featured on my radar when I originally went through everything. It remindeds me of The Dutch entry from last year, lots of hype, market support but it finished 9th. I just don’t see this song appealing to casual Eastern European televoters. The other side of that is the draw, singing from 24th is an advantage. It’s a nice contrast between Bruno Mars impersonator, Basim, Cliche Love Song, for Denmark and the rank outsider Valentina Monetta, Maybe, for San Marino.

With all things considered I can’t be backing this song to win the show. They don’t have enough friendly votes, I don’t believe that it will pick up consistent scores across the whole of Europe and the price is too short for me. iTunes downloads can be a good indicator of a song and so can youtube hits. The Slavic girls of Poland, have 38 MILLION more hits on YouTube than any other act, yet nobody is saying they can win the show.

The other mover in the market this week was the bearded man in a dress from Austria, Conchita Wurst.

Rise Like a Phoenix is basically a Shirley Bassey, James Bond theme tune. I don’t think that a Bond Theme would win Eurovision so I don’t see why we have market love for this ‘gimmick’. He performs the song well, it’s staged well and I even like the song. I just don’t imagine thousands of Eastern Europeans picking up the phones to vote for it. Especially after the energetic performance of Greece, with Rise Up. I’m also sticking to my guns and saying that a song performing before 18 can’t win, Austria sing from 11.

I covered why Armenia was ‘Fanwank’ in my first write up, since then Aram MP3 has gone on to prove me right. He has zero stage presence, can’t really sing and won’t be winning this show from 7th in the running order.

The current favourite is Sweden, my original thoughts on Sanna Nielsen’s, Undo were positive. To a large extent they still are, however we’ve seen this type of song a million times before. Singing from 13th I still believe my initial opinion on it’s market placement were correct;

“…I’m not backing Sweden at the moment, I think I’ll get a bigger price in-running on the night or they song may be early in the running order in which case I won’t be backing it.”

Sanna has the advantage of being surrounded by dross, Germany and France aren’t even worth a mention. So if you’re looking for a bet to finish last I wouldn’t put you off either of those. I would lay Sanna at 3.90, however with me not fancying the next three in the market I’m not looking to have a majority green book. I’d rather position myself where I have the songs I think can/will win running for me against the field.

My final point on what can’t win is this. Everyone says that Sweden won in 2012 because it was new and different, I don’t think that’s the case. Loreen won because her song was current, it was the type of song you’d see on MTV or hear in commercial nightclubs. New and different is what France did with Sognu in 2011. That song was a heavy favourite and it completely failed, singing from 11th it trailed home in 15th with 82 points. Even Blue from The UK finished ahead of it.

So who is going to win? We want;

  • Current
  • Will be liked across Europe
  • Catchy and easy to remember
  • Late draw
  • Good staging

That takes my shortlist to two;

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András Kállay-Saunders – Running

Running Order: 21st

Odds: 28.00 (Betfair)

I’ve wrote enough about this song in my previous articles and on twitter. They can be found here. There isn’t much more I can add, the performance ticks all the boxes I’m looking for. The only draw back is the subject matter, is child abuse going to get people voting for it on a Saturday night?

My liabilities on this song are large enough, so I’m not getting involved again. However if you haven’t backed it or want to top up I think it’s excellent each-way value.

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Back Hungary each-way at 23.00 – Boylesports
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Molly – Children of the Universe

Running Order: 26th

Odds: 14.00 (Betfair)

Molly gets the pimp slot, with a catchy song that we can all sing along to, after all we are all ‘Children of the Universe’. This song is exactly the sort of thing I wanted to see from the BBC this year. I wrote about it halfway down this piece which explained why I was backing her for a Top 10 finish at 2.00 (evens) and since then it’s all fallen into place for out Leicestershire girl. She even gets the winners golden shower to close the show. I backed her in the Outright win market on Betfair yesterday and today I’m adding an each-way play, I will be slightly shocked if this song isn’t in the Top 4. I think it should be favourite for the whole thing. Forget iTunes statistics, we don’t perform in the semi-final so it’s difficult for our songs to gain traction in the charts. I think the casual viewers from Reykjavik to Baku will lap this up, when the lines open this is what they’ll be singing to themselves.

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Back The United Kingdom each-way at 11.00 – Bet365
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So that’s it for another year, hopefully we’ll be in Budapest or London (or Manchester) in 2015. Whatever happens get the drinks in and enjoy the show.

One Comment

  1. I sincerely hope you are right – the UK’s my biggest result, Hungary and The Netherlands second and third.

    Risking Austria early on, Sweden’s a chop out, and Armenia’s no chance.

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