Froch vs Groves II

So we are in fight week, the wait is nearly over and I can’t wait to see how this one pans out!!

I have this feeling though that this may not be the last time we see Froch vs Groves, it’s just a gut feeling nothing more, but I just sense their could be a rubber match with these two fighters. Boxing has had some great trilogy’s over the years……could this end up being another. You’d think then that my pick for this fight is groves to draw it to one win each, but it’s just not that simple.

The build up to the second fight has seen the same carry on as the first. Carl Froch has been adamant that he is taking the second fight far more seriously. He has employed the services of a sports psychologist, and he has stated he is more up for it, more focused.

All the talk is of how he couldn’t get up for the first fight, his trainer Rob McCracken has said that he took phone calls from Carl before the first fight asking him what time training was! Froch wouldn’t be the first fighter to underestimate Groves, James DeGale also didn’t have much respect for Groves ability, and he lost. I’m just very surprised a professional like Froch, with the experienced trainer that McCracken is would take it so lightly, that was a mistake and he very nearly paid the price.

I have mentioned in a previous post that this fight depends more on groves changing his tactics than Froch his. Frochs objective is fairly simple, he wants a war. He would be best suited to goad Groves into fighting his fight, slug it out in the middle of the ring. Frochs biggest strength is his durability and his stamina, he can go 12 rounds fighting as hard in the 12th as in the 1st, he is a machine. And when he gets you going he won’t stop, he won’t gas, he won’t take his foot off the peddle. If you give Froch a sniff he can hurt you, and hurt you bad. Just look at the Lucian Bute fight. The fighters that have done well against Carl are those that have boxed him. Froch always says his boxing skills are underrated, I don’t buy that, I think his boxing skills are rated about right. Yes he has skill obviously, but to suggest he has got where he has by out boxing his opponents is just nonsense. He outlasts them, he wears them down and never stops coming forward and when his opponent has tired he just steps it up and swings in those hooks with venom.

Truth is Froch has struggled against boxers, he lost badly to Andre Ward, granted Ward is pure class and is pretty much untouchable at super middleweight but Froch couldn’t get close. He was behind on the scorecards going into the 12th against Jermain Taylor but Taylor had gassed and with 14 seconds left….Froch got the stoppage. He was out boxed again by Andre Dirrell, he got a split decision that night…..but again he struggled. So in my opinion Groves can win this fight if he chooses to box Carl Froch and prepares for a 12 rounder, no doubt.

That being said I just don’t know if Groves has the experience and composure to do that, I read somewhere that Groves has predicted he will knock Froch out in 3 rounds!! If he try’s to do that he will be playing right into Frochs hands. He needs to do what worked for him so well in the first fight, box behind the jab keep, move in and out use the jab to set up the power shot. The only thing he needs to change is to not get over confident and start swinging for the fences, regardless of whether the stoppage in the first fight was early (which it was), you can’t argue that Groves was gassing. He just threw too many punches in the early rounds, and like I mentioned earlier, where your tired and your movement is not as sharp, that’s when Froch looks to destroy you.

So who do I think will win! I really can’t call this, for me it is a 50/50 fight because both fighters have the tools pick up the win. I’m gonna go with my gut on this though, I just feel this isn’t the end of these two fighters rivalry and I so I’m gonna pick Groves with a Narrow decision win.

Either way, I am expecting some controversy in this fight again, and just can’t wait to watch it unfold.

Froch currently 8/13 with Groves @ 13/10
Groves by decision or technical decision @ 3/1 looks like the value bet.

 

5 Comments

  1. Enjoyable write up for the fight however i feel you have got many aspects of it wrong the main one being the pricing off the fight.

    The market and many others for the this fight have forgotten that Carl Froch did in fact WIN the fight albeit in controversial style. It was a fight that saw Froch at his worst and Groves at his best, he was caught cold in the first round took the best George Groves had to offer and as per usual was coming on strong when the stoppage came, a stoppage that i felt would have came before the end of the 9th if Howard Foster hadnt stepped in when he did.

    An awful lot has been made of how far Groves was ahead in the fight at the time but the facts are he wasnt that far ahead, two off judges had it scored 76-75 and the other had it 78-73 all in favour of Groves. Personally i had Groves up 77-74 with Froch winning rounds 3,5 and 8 but round 4 could easily have gone the other way making it 76-75. I urge those that disagree to watch a replay of the fight without the sound on so you arent influenced by the drivel that Jim Watt talks and score the fight yourself, im adamant you will agree with my scorecard.

    I have to disagree with the point you made about Froch not being able to get up for the first fight at the end of the day i think he saw it as only George Groves. Froch was coming off the back of 3 massive wins including a devastating stoppage against the previously 30-0 Lucian Bute and beating Mikkel Kessler so why should he think Groves was in the same league as them? It happens all the times in various sports teams underestimating other teams Bradford beating Arsenal the other season is a prime example.

    Froch has proven he can adapt and isnt just a one dimensional brawler as some describe him, he outboxed and outclassed Arthur Abraham in the super six series dominating the jab and the centre of the ring. In the first fight with Kessler he started slow yet changed this up for the second fight, starting quickly again dominating with the jab in the early rounds and having enough in reserve to take some of the best shots Kessler could throw.

    You mentioned that Groves needs to prepare for a 12 rounder but its not something you can just prepare for he has gone 12 rounds only twice once agianst James DeGale in a fight where many had DeGale winning. The further the fight goes the more it favours Froch who has been there, seen it and done it in the latter rounds and can be relied upon to dig deep when the going gets tough thats something you cant train!

    You said yourself that you dont think Groves has the experience and composure to try and outbox Froch and this is a point i agree with, so therefore how can a man with questionable composure be an 11/8 shot? Adding to this im certain he doesnt have the required stamina for 12 rounds against elite opposition he only made it to round 9 first time round before looking shattered!

    In terms of pricing see you had the fight down as a 50/50 which implies you make each boxer an even money chance, so unless you make Groves a near 2/1 shot to win by decision it is infact better value to back Groves outright at 11/8.

    Personally i felt the fight was priced correctly when bookies chalked it up straight after the first fight with Carl Froch a 4/9 chance in a rematch, but because of the media hype and slightly premature stoppage you now getting 4/5 on a person that started the first fight at 1/4 STOPPED his opponent and WON and thats not forgetting everything that went wrong aswell !

    Carl Froch to beat George Groves @ 4/5 rates a full win bet.

    @skips2clear

    • Agree with a lot you say. For me it’s one of those fights that would not be shock either result. Agree that it would be natural for him to not be able to get up for the first fight but my point was so many people predicted Groves style could give him problems, and that should have set a few alarm bells ringing. The preparation for 12 rounds comes more down to his tactics on the night. I also question how bad Froch fought, or did Groves just make him look bad. I think if Groves does box clever (and that’s a big if) he can pick enough rounds for a close points win. All said and done should be a great fight!

  2. Those prices in the original post were taken from Bet365.

    My boxing knowledge isn’t great but I do love the sport.
    I think if Groves is to win there are 2 strategies. 1, he can go all out early on and try to improve on those early knock downs last time by keeping him down. Going for a knock out. He knows he’s got the power to trouble Froch. Problem is Froch will be better prepared this time, and will be ready for that.
    2. Groves can look for the points win, he can do more of the same as last time but pace himself better work the Jab and aim for 12 rounds. Problem here is that I don’t think he has the composure to do that, and I think Froch will wear him down and by round 9, 10, 11, Groves will be up on the ropes getting pummelled. If he can hold out I think he may get a draw on points or even the win if he has done enough early on.

    Based on the current prices no one thinks Groves can knock him out early. First 5 rounds for a Groves knock out has nothing better than 33/1.
    Froch decision currently priced @ 7/2 which is tempting.

    However the price that really appeals to me is the 25/1 for a draw or technical draw.

    Everyone’s buzzing about this one, cant wait.

  3. I have to reiterate the point made about Froch being caught cold in the first round last time out, plenty of good fighters have been put down early when not their not expecting it and like you have said Froch will be prepared this time. If Groves does go out and try finish it early it will be playing right into his hands.

    I dont see how Groves can look for the points win either by slowing things down, Froch threw nearly 200 MORE punches (573-389) than groves in the first fight and also landed more punches (157-134) yet was coming into his own in the 9th whilst Groves was wilting away at the time. Against Kessler the 2nd time round he threw nearly 1000 punches in the fight proving he can keep throwing them and still keep going and going. I expect to see Froch use a lot more of his own jab this time round and utilize the 2 & a half inch reach advantage he has.

    Ive mentioned it before and i’ll mention it again the prices are wrong, the stats dont lie from he first fight yet the prices are based on a myth that Groves was robbed and would have won the first fight. Given the lack of proven stamina against elite opposition personally i cant see it lasting the distance, it may well do but im happy enough with 4/5 to win any way he likes.

    @skips2clear

    The link has the punch stats for Froch Groves 1.

    http://www.insidehboboxing.com/inside/2014/5/27/compubox-analysis-carl-froch-vs-george-groves

  4. If the fight is a 50/50 fight it seems fair to suggest that the ‘value’ is on Groves by decision…

    That’s a standard and simple fact.

    Betting on this fight is all about how you view both boxers and their approach to the last fight.

    My personal opinion is that Froch didn’t take the last fight as seriously as he should have, whereas Groves was primed for the day.

    To look at it from a horse racing view, Froch can view that fight as a prep run and due to that I’ll probably be placing my money on this to finish early on in favour of the man from Nottingham.

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