Newmarket 3rd May

I’ve been in excellent racing form since the beginning of the Cheltenham festival, a four figure profit has been achieved form ‘working man’ stakes. I keep expecting think to completely fall apart and I’m sure my form will end at some point. So my advice is, if you’ve been following recently and have made some money, withdraw some of it and buy something nice or go for a meal with the Mrs. Don’t start increasing stakes because ‘you can’, it’s a long summer ahead so there’s no point throwing it all away.

I’m going to Newmarket for the first Classic of the year, so my hopes are that the below will pay for my day.

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SOLE POWER is a horse that I’ve always taken on, last year he flashed home late to deny Shea Shea (and a large payout for me) in the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot, Pearl Secret was 3rd home that day. Last time out he finished 7th in the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan, that form was boosted when 6th home Hamza won at Newmarket last month.

Sole Power has the best form in the book, looks to be the speediest horse and the course and distance form from winning this when beating Kingsgate Native in this race last year. I was expecting to see him priced up at around 3.75 (11/4).

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Back Sole Power at 5.00 – William Hill
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TRADING LEATHER has solid Group One form in the book. He’s won a Irish Derby, came runner-up in The King George VI and the International Stakes, before finishing behind Al Kazeem and The Fugue in the Red Mills Champion Stakes. Despite last years crop of middle distance horse not really living up to much, he should have too much for these if showing anywhere near that level of form again.

Kevin Manning will attempt to make all the running and I see the main danger as Penglai Pavillion, he was unlucky to be cramped for room in The Arc but finished strongly. However he would appear to want more cut in the ground. The form lines suggest that Trading Leather is the class horse in the race and should probably be an odds-on shot.

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Back Trading Leather at 2.10 – General
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The most interesting Guineas in recent years pits Kingman against, Group One winners Toormore and Kingston Hill along with ‘the best’ Aiden O’Brien has ever trained, Australia. Add into the speedy front runner Noozhoh Canarias from Spain and Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Outstrip and we have an excellent race in prospect.

Kingman has been all the rage, and rightly so. He was impressive when wining The Greenham easily last time out, with Night of Thunder in behind. I was looking for something to beat him this week as he was no value to me at 5/4. I though that Kingston Hill would be the bet if we had rain, Noozhoh Canarias could win if he got a soft lead and War Command would win if the ground came up really quick. If Australia is as good as they say he is then he has an obvious chance, but until I’ve seen it I’m wary of backing him.

Then on Thursday Kingman was drawn in stall 1, away from the pace in the middle of the course. Frankel won his Guineas from stall 1, but he front ran the whole thing. The way I see the race going is Noozhoh Canarias blasting off in front with Australia and War Command in behind. This leaves James Doyle with a choice to make on the favourite, does he risk having no cover by racing wide on his own, attempt to get in behind in the hope that covering even more ground doesn’t harm his stamina or does he get across and go with the pace.

I think we’ll see him attempt to get in behind an wait with Kingman, which will use up more energy trying to get across. I want to be on a horse who is up drawn near the pace, has the class and more importantly the speed, that horse is WAR COMMAND. I saw this horse at Royal Ascot last year when he won the Coventry by six lengths, since then he’s not really done anything wrong bar one poor run at The Curragh.

At this stage I think War Command is the value, I’m expecting him to go off shorter after both Kingman and Australia drift out. He’s in the perfect position to follow Noozhoh Canarias through the race and pick him up late on. The hope is that Kingman won’t be able to stay on past him, somthing I’m quietly confident won’t happen as I don’t think a tough mile on quick ground will see the Gosden horse at it’s best.

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Back War Command at 8.00 – Betfred
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