Royal Ascot Day 4

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PATIENCE ALEXANDER had the form of her last run franked on Wednesday when Tiggy Wiggy went down a neck in The Queen Mary. The winner of that race, Anthem Alexander, is also the owner of this selection. That does cause some slight concern as she’s never ran over six furlongs before and would surely have gone for The Queen Mary if connections were different. Saying that she stayed on well at York and is drawn next to the pace. The pace will be set my American raider Sunset Glow, trained by Wesley Ward, however I also have doubts about her ability to stay six furlongs.

This is a tough race to call with many stepping up in trip, no real form lines and a big field. The preference this week seems to be that the stands side rail is the place to be, Patience Alexander is draw in the middle (10) but crucially next to the pace, so should get a good tow into the race which is a plus for me. She also has form that has been franked so there are no doubts on them counts. That just leaves the trip, visually she looks like it’s within her reach, with two of those three boxes ticked I’m happy enough to get involved.

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Back Patience Alexander at 6.00 – Ladbrokes

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SNOW SKY was entered in some big races both this season and last. He finished a long way behind Kingston Hill in The Group One Racing Post Trophy back in October, however he looked like he need further that day as he kept on well towards then end on testing ground. This year he won The Lingfield Derby Trial really well over eleven furlongs, that gives me the confidence along with his breeding that twelve furlongs will be perfect for him. A late injury, when he knocked a joint in his box, stopped him lining up in The Derby.

The one horse that did run in The Derby was Western Hymn, however I think that this race may be too soon for him. It’s also worth noting that William Buick has decided to ride the other Gosden horse, despite being on Western Hymn on all his starts this season. Therefore I’m expecting Snow Sky to reverse the form on quicker ground over a longer trip. The favourite Adelaide has some stamina doubts from the dams side of his breeding, but I also have concerns about the ground. He is already a winner of a Group 3 and the runner-up in a Group 2, however they came on soft and heavy ground. The stable think he’ll be better on good ground and there’s no reason he shouldn’t, I just have the feeling that he’s in this by default. If he was that good then surely he would have gone to The Derby.

At the odds I think Snow Sky is the bet here, I thought he’d run a big race in The Derby and was disappointed he didn’t make it to Epsom, this is his chance to get a big race win under his belt.

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Back Snow Sky at 7.00 – Bet Victor

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The form of three year old fillies is all over the place this season, which can be expected after they were all beating each other as two year olds. On this seasons form LIGHTNING THUNDER probably has the best and most consistent 2014 form in the race, she was the runner up in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas. In the English 1000 Guineas, she had Euro Charline, Rizeena, Sandiva, Lucky Kristal and Tapestry all in behind her, that’s almost half the field and there doesn’t seem to be any reason for that form to be turned around.

Her main danger looks to be My Titania, who missed both 1000 Guineas due to health or weather. She’s very well bred, however she’s probably better over ten furlongs than eight. She was beaten on debut last season and running her first time out in this particular Group One without a run isn’t an ideal preparation.

Lightning Thunder was a neck from winning the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, with almost half her rivals in behind, that’s the best form in this race and she’s probably at least half a point over-priced.

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Back Lightning Thunder at 5.00 – General

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