World Cup 2014 Part 2

Part 1 of my ‘Working Mans World Cup Bets’ can be found here here. Part two is a bit more left field, but it includes my Top Goalscorer bet, which after Under 14.5 goals in England’s Group, is the one I’m most confident on.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Group E” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I really fancied France in Euro 2012, however they failed to win their Group and were then dumped out by Spain in the next round. This time round I was looking to take them on but looking at their Group and draw I have a feeling that they can go far at a big price.

With players like Remy, Giroud, Lloris, Pogba, Cabaye and Varane they should be too good for Honduras and Ecuador. That leaves top seeds Switzerland as their only real competition for first place. I can’t see France losing to Switzerland and I’m confident they’ll be able to outscore the Swiss against the other two sides, that should see them winning the group.

In the next round I suspect they’ll either play Bosnia or Argentina. I have a feeling that this French side could beat Argentina in a high scoring match IF they scored the first goal. If it isn’t Argentina then they’d be favorites against Bosnia. That them sets them up for a quarter final against either an over-rated Germany or ‘one-man team’ Portugal, both winnable games.

After two tough games though I feel that might be their lot, if they make it that far, Spain or Brazil are the most likely candidates in the semi-final and I wouldn’t fancy them to beat either. At odds of 8.00 (7/1) I think that France slightly over priced to be eliminated at the last four stage, especially when compared to Germany at 5.00 (4/1).

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Back France Stage of Elimination Semi Final at 8.00 – Bet Victor
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Group F” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Nigeria and Iran aren’t good enough when compared to Bosnia or Argentina for me so they’re going home. The questions in this group are;

  • Can Bosnia get a draw against Argentina?
  • Who will score more against Iran and Nigeria?

My answer to the first question is yes, I do think Bosnia are able to get a draw in the opening match of this group. The answer to the 2nd question is Bosnia for me. Iran and Nigeria will look to keep things tight against the Argies, which will obviously make it harder to score, despite their wealth of attacking talent. However both those side will see Bosnia as a team they need to have a go at if they want any hope of getting through the group. That will play into Bosnia’s hands, as they should be able to pick them off on the counter attack.

My pick for Top Goalscorer also comes from this group. Edin Dzeko is the main man up front for Bosnia and is the source for most of their goals, he currently has 35 goals in 62 international appearances. If I’m right about Bosnia outscoring Argentina then I can see him getting 5 or even 6 goals in the group stage alone. That would leave him in great shape to pick up the Golden Boot.

Argentina obviously have goals in them, however with so much talent on show I suspect the goals will be shared around, so at the prices I’d rather be with the Bosnian front man than any Argentinian player.

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Back Bosnia To Win Group F at 8.50 – YouWin
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Back Bosnia Stage of Elimination Quarter Final at 8.00 – Bet Victor
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Back Edin Dzeko Top Goalscorer each-way at 67.00 – Betfred
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Group G” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’ve alluded to how I feel about Germany enough times, so I’m not going into massive amounts of details for this group. The odds give Germany a 66% chance of winning the group which I think is too much. In terms of actual quality I don’t think that there is too much between Germany and Portugal. When the two sides met at Euro 2012 the Germans struggled to break them down and only won 1-0 thanks to a 72nd minute goal, I think we’ll be in for something similar here. I don’t look at Germany and see a player who can unlock a door in the same way Ronaldo can, which can/will make it difficult for them against all the teams in this group. Portugal look the value to win the group at odds of 3.55.

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Back Portugal To Win Group G at 3.55 – 888Sport
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Group H” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Belgium…. everybody’s ‘dark horse’ and like all the dark horses that have gone before them they have a striker of African Origin up front. The Ivory Coast were dark horses in 2010, they failed. In 2006 it was Cameroon… they failed. I don’t get what everybody’s love for Belgium is. The qualified from a group that contained Scotland and Wales, if England had done that would that give us a better chance of winning The World Cup? The have good players, but are they that much better than those of England? Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge both out-scored Lukaku last season and apparently he’s going to take the World Cup by storm.

To put it simply Belgium are way too short in all the markets at the World Cup. I expect Russia, who have tournament experience, to beat them and I also think that Algeria will be able to keep it tight enough to have a chance of progressing. If Algeria can get a draw against Belgium then I can see this going down to goal difference between those two sides and at the odds I feel Belgium have to be taken on.

This is also a group where I can see there being a limited amount of goals, all the sides in it are setup to counter attack so the 2.00 on there being under 14.5 goals looks to be the way to go.

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Back Russia Group H Winner at 3.50 – YouWin
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Back Belgium Not To Qualify at 5.00 – Winner
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Back Under 14.5 Total Group Goals at 2.00 – YouWin
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My stakes for these bets are as follows;

  • France Semi Final Elimination £10
  • Bosnia Group F winner £10
  • Bosnia Quarter Final Elimination £15
  • Edin Dzeko Top Goalscorer £10 e/w (£20)
  • Portugal Group G Winner £20
  • Russia Group H Winner £25
  • Belgium Not To Qualify £10
  • Group H Total Goals Under 14.5 £30

So that’s that, £340 of the average UK weekly take home wage has been spent on ante-post bets. The other £63.36 is going to be spent wisely over the group stage and I’ll be posting them bets on twitter.

Cherry Analysts

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