[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:30 – Gordon Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
I think that the King Edward VII Stakes from Royal Ascot will prove to be a better race than The Tercentenary stakes in the long term. For that reason I want to avoid Cloudscape and Somewhat who finished 4th and 7th in the Tercentenary. Although Somewhat (100/1) did finish 3rd in the Coral Eclipse, I see that as more of a ‘freak’ result, he’s not a better horse than Kingston Hill, The Fugue, War Command and Night of Thunder. I think that was more of case that those in behind couldn’t make up the ground on what was a very quick pace.
From the King Edward VII Stakes we have SCOTLAND and Snow Sky. I backed Snow Sky at Ascot and he finished 4th, 1/2 a length behind Scotland (3rd). I don’t see much between either of these two horses, Snow Sky beat Scotland at Newbury earlier in the season, before going on to win the Lingfield Derby Trail, which has had it’s form franked by Hartnell. I can’t really see why Scotland is around double the price of Snow Sky, I’d have them much closer together in the betting for this based on everything we know about the pair.
On a form line through Sudden Wonder, Observational shouldn’t be able to finish ahead of Snow Sky which should also mean that Scotland has the beating of him too.
Windshear is an interesting runner, he has finished 2nd to some nice types in his last three starts and the form lines of those winner do tie in with this race. However the fact that he didn’t win any of those races makes me doubt whether he will be able to finish ahead of both Snow Sky and Scotland, who look to hold him on collateral form.
Red Galileo brings a 5th placed finish in The Derby to the table, but I feel Snow Sky will be able to hold up the form of the Lingfield Derby Trial. Ayrad just doesn’t look good enough.
Weighing up the form the race looks like it will be fought out between Snow Sky and Scotland. I’d have them priced up at 4.00 (3/1) Snow Sky and 5.00 (4/1) Scotland.
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”15:05 – Sussex Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
This races comes down to ‘Can KINGMAN be beaten receiving 8lbs?’ My answer to that is, no. Of the three year olds Kingman has already beaten Outstrip and War Command twice this season, it takes some creative thinking to believe that they’ll be able to reverse the form here. Darwin has been entered as a pace maker for War Command, so I expect to see him setting a strong pace for five furlongs before falling away to finish last.
That leaves Toronado as the only credible challenger. As we’ve seen in the last few years a good three year old should beat the older horses given the weigh allowance. Toronado and Dawn Approach both drew clear of the field last year, Frankel broke Canford Cliffs in 2011, Canford Cliffs beat Rip van Winkle in 2010 and the list goes on before that. Obviously Frankel is the best on that list and I don’t think Kingman is up to that standard, however I do have him ahead of where Toronado was last year and probably slightly ahead of where he is now. With 8lbs weigh for age allowance he looks almost unbeatable here.
This should be a tactical race, if they go slow then Kingman will win with his turn of foot so that’s not an option. They need an end to end gallop to be set, so I see the race panning out like this;
- Darwin leads for five furlongs
- Toronado sitting just off him, as they feel he stay’s further than eight furlongs
- Outstrip sting in midfield doing nothing
- Kingman and War Command held up
- At the three furlong marker, Toronando will take the lead and go for home at the 1 & 1/2 furlong mark
- Kingman gets a shake of the reigns, quickens and wins going away
If the race does pan out like that then we may get a bigger price about Kingman during the race. He hit 2.24 at Ascot, so my plan is to put my stake up at 1.83 and leave it to go in-running. If it gets matched and he wins excellent, if it gets matched and he gets beaten never mind I would have lost backing at pre-off anyway. If it doesn’t get matched then I would have missed out on backing a short priced odds-on shot, which isn’t really missing out.
[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Kingman at 1.83 (leave to go in-running) – Betfair
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”15:40 – Vintage Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
The second I saw this race I wanted to be against Highland Reel. The O’Brien colt won impressively over a mile last time out, by twelve lengths. He was a 8/15 chance that day so should have won, the race has also thrown up Hall of Fame (3rd) who won next time out beating the highly regarded John F Kennedy.
My reasons for taking him on though are that Goodwood is a very different track, for me it’s not one that’s about staying but more one that’s about speed, that’s why the drop back in trip for this horse could be a negative. I also have several horse that I like running for me; Dr No finished 7th in what is already shaping up to be a strong Coventry, Ahlan Emarati finished 2nd in The Norfolk and then showed form at The Curragh last time out to tie in with those two-year-old who ran in The Coventry. Finally there is Tupi, who is the choice of Richard Hughes for the Hannon stable, they’ve won this race for the last four years so should be respected.
[symple_box color=”red” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Lay Highland Reel at 2.18 – Betfair