Sandown 5th July

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AHTOUG is the best horse in this race for me. He’s finished 2nd a number of times this season to some good horses and was a creditable 5th in the Kings’ Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. On that day at Ascot he had Steps, Green Door and Rex Imperator in behind, Stepper Point finished 2nd that day at 50/1. Ahtoug was coming back from a break at Ascot and I expect him to come on for the run which should see him have the horses in behind held and hopefully reverse the form with Stepper Point. I’ve still seen nothing to make me think that the Al Quoz sprint from Meydan isn’t the best five furlong form there is, he finished 2nd in that and a repeat of that today should see him winning.

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Back Ahtoug at 6.00 – General
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Firstly too much has been made about the rain, we had some drizzle last night but nothing major, the ground still has firm in the description. Therefore there should be no excuses for any of these horses. Kingston Hill can handle quick ground, he finished 2nd in The Derby on a firmer surface. The Fugue is at her best on firm ground, but has form on good ground, especially when winning the Irish Champion Stakes last year. I don’t think that the older horses, will be able to give weight away, so that cuts my list down to The Fugue, Night of Thunder, Kingston Hill, War Command, Somewhat and True Story.

Somewhat and True Story aren’t good enough to win this. War Command is becoming a cliff horse for many as he has failed to live up to that impressive victory at Royal Ascot in 2013. He’s up in trip today despite everything suggesting he needs a shorter distance, so a line goes through him.

The 2000 Guineas has been a great form race this year and we have the winner Night of Thunder going here. I thought that Night of Thunder would relish 10 furlongs after watching him win The Guineas and today we’ll find out if he can step up in trip. He was beaten by Kingman at Ascot last month and there’s no shame in that. Tactically that race didn’t work out for him as he tried to lead from the start, when he needs to track the pace.

Kingston Hill brings The Derby form (2nd) to the table, but I don’t see him being at effective over 10 furlongs as he is over 12, he just doesn’t look to have the pace to me. I can see Mukhadram setting the pace here with Kingston Hill sitting just off him, I think this will set the race up for a fast finisher with a turn of foot. The Fugue is the obvious candidate for that, however NIGHT OF THUNDER is the one I want to be with, I have that feeling he’ll improve for the step up, the 2000 Guineas form looks a little bit special and he receives weight. At the prices he’s and excellent each-way bet to nothing.

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Back Night of Thunder each-way at 6.00 – Bet 365
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