Premier League 23rd August 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Aston Villa v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I like the look of Newcastle in this match-up despite Villa winning at Stoke last weekend. Newcastle were beaten 2-0 at home by Manchester City and The Magpies failed to have a single shot on target (3rd consecutive league game that Man City have not conceded an SOT). It’s obvious that Newcastle will have a much easier task today, I would have them priced up as slight favourites so a back of an away win would be a viable play. However with it still being early in the season I’m trying to steer clear of match results unless I feel it’s massively overpriced. Instead of backing Newcastle to win I’d much rather back them to score over 1.5 goals (2 or more), I have this down at around a 40% chance of happening. That may seem a little high, but it’s something that they achieved in 31% of their away games last season, whilst Villa conceded 2+ in 57% of their home games.

My goal expectancies for this are Villa 1.27 v 1.38 Newcastle. Using those numbers for the correct score market gives 1-1 as the most likely outcome, however I have that priced up at 8.08, but only 7.00 is available with the bookmakers therefore it’s a no bet. The value in the correct score market is on the away win results with 0-2, 0-3, 1-3 and 2-3 offering the ‘value’.

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Back Total Newcastle Goals Over 1.50 at 3.00 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Crystal Palace v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

As a Crystal Palace fan before the season started everybody was telling me that we’d be fine etc etc. When I told them I thought we were a good bet for relegation they looked at me like I was mad, apart from the odd QPR fan. The simple fact is we over-achieved last season. I had us as a 37-41 point side and before the whole Pulis thing, which I won’t go into I had us at the exact same mark this season.

That bring me on to today’s match and West Ham are being massively under rated here. The East Londoners aren’t a great side, to be honest they’re not even a good side. However with goal expectancies of Palace 1.09 v 1.17 West Ham, the first team to score in this match will probably go on to win it.

It is a worry for me that I have Palace still down as a low scoring side, however that could/should change over the long term with Fraizer Campbell offering more in the central role than what was their last season. With a fully fir Glenn Murray and Dwight Gayle on the bench, they should be looking to improve on last seasons goal tally. The issues may come at the other end, going to the ‘defensive well’ over and over again is a tough thing to do, especially as any lapses on concentration are punished. Palace were undone from two set pieces last weekend against the smallest team in the league. They’ve had an extra week to work on their partnerships and set plays so we may see a better showing.

West Ham were pretty poor last weekend in a match which they were up against ten men for over an hour. However they still maintained that solid defensive shape which kept them so many clean sheets last season. Going forward though they next to nothing, even when they get a penalty they fail to hit the target.

I’m not confident that West Ham will win this match, I rate them about equal to Crystal Palace and I’m expecting a 1-0 victory either way. Home advantage may sway it for Palace, however the value still lies with West Ham. A 1-0 away victory is priced at 9.00, my workings have it at 8.26, so from A correct score point of view that’s a ‘value’ bet. However I have all the away win scores down as value, so I’m just going to back West Ham to get a rare away win.

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Back West Ham at 3.40 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton V Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I have Everton and Arsenal both down as value bets in this, obviously that makes the draw at 3.40 a bad bet. The reason I have the draw as a poor bet is down to having goal expectancies of Everton 1.32 v 1.38 Arsenal. Those numbers are close enough together to make you think that the draw is a good bet. However those numbers are also high enough to take the 0-0 score out of the equation. With 0-0 contributing between 8-10% of the market over round, the odd’s on a draw should go up if you don’t think it will finish that way. I have the 0-0 correct score priced up at 15.05, so 6.64% chance of happening.

The scores that I see as value bets are 2-0 and 3-0 Everton victories or Arsenal to win either 1-0 or 2-0. These are two of the better sides in the league, so whoever gets their noses in front is more than capable of keeping it that way.

Arsenal were reduced to pot-shots from distance last weekend and if Everton get the first goal I have the feeling we’ll see a similar tale this weekend, with Everton sitting back and looking to hit Arsenal on the break. Arsenal are now the masters of a 2-0 victory, keeping it tight, passing it about and stealing a goal is what whey are about. If they take the lead they are professional enough to see the match out.

These two sides kept 32 clean sheets between them last season and with me not wanting to side with 0-0, I feel the best way to play this is to back both sides To Win to Nil. The way to do that is with Coral, who offer 5.20 on Arsenal and 5.25 on Everton. If you put 50.24% of your money on the Arsenal side of the bet and 49.76% on the Everton side then then you are left with a bet at 2.61 on either side to win to nil.

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Dutch Arsenal at 5.20 & Everton at 5.25 To Win To Nil –
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