Premier League 30th August 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea v West Brom” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Swansea have made a great start to the season, with maximum points coming form their first two games. However beating Manchester United, even at Old Trafford isn’t looking like much of a form line to go on. Whilst three points at home to Burnley is what every team should be expecting this season. My concern with Swansea is that they still don’t look any better than the mid-table side that labored away last season. So far they’ve had 15 shots this season, however 60% of those have been on target. That number in itself is too high, therefore they won’t be able to sustain it for the whole season.

West Brom by contrast have started the season and life under Alan Irvine with two draws. However the signs are positive. The number of shots that they appear to be conceding is down on last year, so in theory the number of goals they concede should also go down.

It’s early days in the season, so a lot of my goal expectancies are based around last year, +/- a %  on how I feel a team has improved or regressed by. For this match I have goal expectancies of;

  • Swansea        1.486459539
  • West Brom     1.272999216

Working form that basis I have Swansea priced up in the 2.30 range, the Draw at around 3.90 and a West Brom win at 3.10. Those numbers don’t take into account home advantage, however if I increase the goal expectancy of Swansea by 7% and decrease West Brom’s by 7% (14% Total Swing), due to home advantage then I get the below odds and goal expectancies;

  • Swansea 2.14
  • Draw 4.01
  • Away 3.52
  • Swansea Goal Exp – 1.590512
  • West Brom Goal Exp – 1.183883

Therefore on all my numbers, I cannot see why Swansea are priced up as odds-on favourites with a 53.47% chance of winning the match. At odds of 4.80, West Brom are defiantly the ‘value’ call in this match.

The value correct scores that I have for this match are 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2 ,1-3 as well as the 2-2 draw. I have priced Over 2.50 Goals at 1.90 and Unders at 2.10, therefore there appears the value in that market is to side with Over 2.50 Goals, which is generally available at 2.00. As so often Both Teams To Score NO offers some value, I have it priced up at 1.90, however 2.00 is available with Coral. The chances of both teams scoring, by my calculations, is 45.99% therefore you should be looking for odds of above 2.10 if you want to back that.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back West Brom at 4.80 –

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Newcastle v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

West Ham were my NAP last weekend, and they delivered at odds of 3.40 by defeating Crystal Palace 3-1. I’m a Crystal Palace fan and as I commented last weekend and on twitter, I don’t feel that they will be able to improve on last season. At this time I have rated the down 15% on last seasons showing. Defensively they have forgotten everything over the summer, last seasons well drilled unit that dealt with almost every set play look to be no more. That may be due to new signings, the management changes or just laziness. However it has been exposed and they need to resolve them issues if they want to be competitive. There are some positive signs though, they appear to be a better side going forward which will only be increased by the arrival of Wilfred Zaha and if Dwight Gayle starts.

All that ‘doom and gloom’ may lead you to believe that Newcastle are a banker this weekend, but at the odds they have to be opposed. I was expecting Newcastle to improve this season, however they are standing still. Scoring goals are still a problem, in three competitive games their only goal was an own goal by a Gillingham player.

Based on what we saw last season and the evidence of this season so far I’m not expecting this game to be a goal fest. I have given Over 2.50 goals a 38.47% chance, this equates to odds of 2.59. This is currently priced up at 2.20, so offers no value. I have Under 2.50 Goals priced up at 1.62, the market generally has this outcome between 1.62 and 1.67. At those sort of margins it’s not really a price for me to get involved in.

Those numbers above are based around my goal expectancies of Newcastle 1.287103 and Crystal Palace 0.940732. Therefore I have priced the Match Odds market up as follows;

  • Newcastle 2.25
  • Draw 3.52
  • Crystal Palace 3.67

I can sort of understand why Newcastle are priced up as and odds-on (1.75) favourite in this and I’m sure that they’ll have their backers. However they haven’t shown me that they can create or score enough to be that price. I am confident of the 15% that I have downgraded Crystal Palace being a fair mark. If I am correct in that then Newcastle will have to improve by over 30% on what they’ve show in the last year to be the price that they are.

In the correct score markets 1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3 and 2-3 are the ‘value’ scorelines. As ever Both Teams To Score NO  offers no value. I have given the no side of the market a 59.47% chance, which is odds of 1.68. 1.73 is available on that happening, however that’s too tight for me to want to get involved in. I have the YES side priced up at 2.46, however those ever generous bookmakers are only offering 2.15.

I want to be against Newcastle in this, despite my confidence in Crystal Palace getting the job done, not as high as it would have been a month ago. With both the draw and the away win showing as value on my calculations, the best bet appears to be backing Crystal Palace with 0.50 goal start on the Asian Handicaps.

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Back Crystal Palace +0.50 Asian Handicap at 2.18 –

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