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Cavalryman has won three of his four starts this season, the only time he was beaten was back in March when I backed him at Meydan. He found trouble in running that day and could only finish 2nd, without the trouble he probable would have won by 4+ lengths. He had Angel Gabrial, Forgotten Voice and Estimate in behind when winning The Goodwood Cup om his last start and there is no reason for that form to be reversed.
Despite all of that I want to side with PALE MIMOSA, Dermot Weld doesn’t sent many over to the UK, so when he does they need to be respected. This 5-year-old mare won a listed race easily last time out, Certerach was a long way back that day, with the 2nd and 4th both coming out of the race and winning since. In May she finished 3rd behind Leading Light and Royal Diamond and that piece of form puts her right up there with a chance in this race. In terms of ground she’s versatile and seems to go on any surface, so a mixed forecast isn’t a concern for me. She also has a course win to her name, all be it from two years ago. I’ve personally been waiting for her to come back to England and today is the day I think she lands her first Group race.
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For personal entertainment reasons I wanted to see Amber Sky come over and contest this as I think we would have seen something really special. York is a quick track and for that reason I want to side with another front running horse, TAKE COVER. The selection done me a favour when winning at Goodwood last month. He looks to be on an upwards curve at the moment which could see him peaking today. So far he’s two form two at York, so it appears to be a track that plays perfectly to his front running tactics.
Sole Power has to be opposed purely based on the trainers comments of him not being in the form he’d like him to be in, and he’s worse than he was before Ascot. The one I’m actually most worried about is my 2013 cliff horse, Shea Shea. I don’t think he showed anywhere near his best form at Ascot, coming off an break and from a poor draw. However he’s on the ‘right’ side of the track today as far as the pace is concerned and if one of these is to reel Take Cover in I expect it to be him.
We may also see Extortionist finish in the places today, he was a close 2nd to Take Cover at Goodwood despite being drawn away from the pace. So a 9-5-2 combination tri-cast wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world to have in this. However I still think Take Cover can have that one more bit of progression in him before he hits his peak, with 9.00 (8/1) looking to big of a price.
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Back Take Cover at 9.00 – Paddy Power