Premier League 13th September 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Manchester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Surprisingly for me I’m going to be backing Over 2.50 goals in this match. I have goal expectancies of Arsenal 1.46539 v Man City 1.666653, those numbers give me odds of 1.65 on Over 2.50 Goals however 1.87 is available.The price may be that high due to injuries to both sides, however both sides have enough to talent to create scoring opportunities, whilst Arsenal have looked poor defensively all season. The most likely score for this match is 1-1, but that offers no value. At the prices the value correct scores are 3-2 (34), 1-3 (21), 2-3 (29). Looking at the Match Odds market Manchester City and Arsenal both look ‘value’ I have them priced up as below;

  • Arsenal 2.96
  • Man City 2.35
  • Draw 4.19

As ever Both Teams To Score YES offers no value, despite the high goal expectancy. Although I agree YES should be favourite I have it priced at 1.95, however only 1.67 is available. Despite No offering some value, I’m still taken by the price on Over 2.50 Goals and that’s where my money is going.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back Over 2.50 Goals at 1.87 – [/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”] I have watched every Newcastle match so far this season and I haven’t been that impressed with them. However they are starting to get the ball forward quicker, but lack a goal scorer. They were gifted three goals last time out and they won’t be that lucky again today. Saying that though they look a big price this afternoon. My goal expectancies for this are Southampton 1.593087 v Newcastle 1.129132, those numbers give the below match odds;

  • Southampton 2.08
  • Newcastle 3.70
  • Draw 4.00

Apart from 2-2 all the value correct scores are on the Newcastle winning results. Therefore at the prices Newcastle are the team to side with. I don’t see Southampton as an odds-on shot for the time being, in this type of matchup. I have priced Over 2.50 Goals at 1.95, with Unders at 2.04. Both Teams To Score NO doesn’t offer any value either in this match, I have it priced at 1.87 and that’s the ceiling of what is generally available. You would think that that would make YES a value bet, but it doesn’t. After the bookies have taken their cut the top price on YES is 1.95, I have it priced up at 2.14.

At the prices Newcastle have to be backed here, as my numbers and my own thoughts have them winning this game more that 19 times out of every 100 played.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back Newcastle at 5.25 – Bet365[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Both of these sides are about the same level they were at last season and that makes Tottenham awful value. I have their goal expectancy at 1.408525 v Sunderland 1.291417. Tottenham should be favourites but I have them priced at 2.51, therefore the 2.20 offers no value. I have home wins of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1 as value scores along with 3-3. The fact that my predicted odds on these scores closely match what is generally available, I don’t understand why Sunderland’s win price isn’t in line with the 2.90 I have them at.

I have Over 2.50 Goals priced up at 1.97,  whilst Unders is 2.02, that makes the 2.05 available on Overs slight value, but not enough of a margin to interest me. It’s the same in the Both Teams To Score market, I have No priced at 1.91 with 2.00 being the generally available price.

With Sunderland priced at 3.90 I have to side with them in what looks like it will be a closer game than the odds suggest. However I also want to get some draw cover in this bet as the 3-3 scoreline is value with the 1-1 and 2-2 prices not that far away from what I believe they should be. I have the Sunderland – Draw double chance priced up at 1.66, however 1.80 is available. Laying Spurs at 2.1x on Betfair is also an option.

[symple_box color=”red” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Lay Tottenham at 2.16 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Brom v Everton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Everton are a shade of value in this, as things stand they are ‘open to improvement’ whilst West Brom look to be on the downgrade. At the moment I have Everton playing to the same levels they were last season, despite only having two points on the board. They have played Arsenal and Chelsea as well as a Leicester side who have started the season creditably. I am keeping West Brom at last seasons level for the time being, but a poor performance today will see them downgraded in my expectations, therefore making them a good bet for relegation. The goal expectancies for this match are;

  • West Brom 1.15677
  • Everton 1.473966

Therefore I have the below match odds;

  • West Brom 3.36
  • Everton 2.20
  • Draw 3.86

There isn’t stacks of value on the correct score markets, but the 2-0 victories for either side at 22 and 13 would be the ones to side with. The Both Teams To Score market in this match is interesting, despite the low goal expectancies  NO is odds against and offers massive value. I have this market priced as below;

  • YES 2.15
  • NO 1.86

The bookies have priced this up at 1.73 for YES and 2.15 for NO. Those odds don’t make sense to me, Everton may have conceded ten goals already this season but they aren’t going to continue at that level, it isn’t their style. With West Brom needing a positive result I can see them playing more like they did at Southampton, trying to keep it tight and sneak a victory.

The ‘value’ in this match lies with a low scoring victory for either side or an Everton win. At the prices I would rather take Both Teams To Score No than back Everton.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.15 –
[/symple_box]

 

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