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Both of these sides come into this local derby on the back of a defeat in the last round of fixtures. Those defeats are almost making this into a don’t lose fixture for both, if they want to keep up with their respective targets for the season. These two sides also have midweek European fixtures to think about, something that I feel will play heavier on Liverpool’s minds.
It’s not secret that these teams like to attack and it’s well documented that Liverpool struggle defensively. Surprisingly Everton have been poor at the back this season conceding thirteen goals in five matches.
At the moment a lot of my goal expectancies work is based around last season, with adjustments added on what we’ve seen this year. That means that Liverpool have been downgraded and therefore despite Everton’s poor defensive form I’m happy with my Goal Expectations below;
- Liverpool 1.590131
- Everton 1.363977
Based on them numbers, I have produced the numbers in the top left image. Those numbers show that Liverpool offer no value at their current price of 2.00. I have priced them at 2.34, which when compared to the ‘tight margins’ in the correct score market seems a fair price.
All the ‘value’ is staked on the Everton side of the market. I have them priced at 3.05 , however 4.33 is available. The draw is interesting as on my workings it’s just short of being value, however I want to work with my numbers having a 2% margin of error so it has to come in consideration.
The most likely scoreline on my workings shows as 1-1, currently priced up at 8.50. That’s followed by a 2-1 Liverpool win, but like I said earlier all the true lies with Everton Correct scores (0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3).
Liverpool currently have injury concerns with Henderson, Coutinho and Sturridge, they should also be worried about Balotelli losing his head and getting sent off. None of those factors have much of a baring on my numbers as I can’t measure the affect a red card would have on the game. The Sturridge loss is partially included, however not to a degree whereby him playing will massively increase Liverpool’s chances of victory.
All things considered this looks like an excellent opportunity for Everton to record their first victory at Anfield fifteen years to the day since their last in 1999, or at very least get themselves a draw.
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Back Everton +0.50 Asian Handicap at 1.975 – Bet365