Premier League 20th September 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Aston Villa v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

It’s difficult to make a case for Arsenal to be odds-on in this, people will say that they have lost at Villa Park in 15 years so they won’t lose here etc etc. That logic is ridiculous, would them people back Arsenal to win this match at 1.10 (1/10), I don’t think they would. The value in this match is all on the Aston Villa side.

Villa haven’t had many shots this year, only six on target, but they have been able to stop teams shooting and therefore scoring against them. With Danny Welbeck leading the line, I wouldn’t be confident on Arsenal converting the chances that they do create.

I have goal expectancies of Aston Villa 1.18698 v 1.588377 Arsenal. Those numbers show that Arsenal should be favourites, but they should be around the 2.14 mark. I have Aston Villa priced up at 3.51, with the draw at 4.01.

In the correct score market I believe 1-1 is the most likely score and have this priced at 8.50. In terms of value score lines I have 2-2, 3-3 and all the Aston Villa victories. As two of my value correct scores are draws, with the 1-1 scoreline very close to being value, I want to get some draw cover on my bet. Therefore I’m going to back Aston Villa with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicaps.

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Back Aston Villa +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.50 –

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Newcastle v Hull” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Newcastle are awful, they struggle to score and they can’t defend. I’ve now downgraded them 15% from last season. I don’t think that Hull have improved, but they are certainly not going to finish twelve points behind Newcastle if what we’ve seen so far in 2014 ¬†holds up. My goal expectancies for this are;

  • Newcastle 1.162013
  • Hull 1.17339

Those numbers make Hull favourites, however I trust my numbers. They use the same logic for every match, sometimes they are closer to the market prices, sometimes they’re not. I have this priced at;

  • Newcastle 2.80
  • Draw 3.55
  • Hull 2.76

That makes Hull ‘value’ by a long way. Already this season I’ve missed out on Stoke winning at Man City and Villa’s win at Liverpool, by not going with the numbers that were a long way out. Therefore I’m going to start trusting my workings more this season. Hull are 3.75 to win this and that looks too big, even if my numbers are wrong, I think many people would struggle to find a reason why Hull aren’t a good bet at that price.

I have 1-1 as the most likely scoreline, my prices for it are 7.57 which isn’t far from the 7.00 available. However the value scorelines are 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2 and 1-3.

I have to be with Hull in this match as I can’t see a reason for them to be that price. Newcastle have three wins from eleven home games in 2014, they’ve lost seven of those. They have also only managed to score nine goals in that time but have conceded seventeen.

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Back Hull at 3.75 – Bet365

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